495
FXPQ50 PGUM 232023
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
623 AM ChST Mon Jun 24 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows partly cloudy skies and isolated showers moving into
the Marianas Waters, with scattered showers moving out. The Ritidian
buoy shows combined seas of 4 to 6 feet, composed mainly of a 3 to 5
foot east swell and wind waves.

&&

.Discussion...
The trough came through fast and hit hard, relatively... and it
didn`t limit itself to Guam and Rota either. It`s now on the way out
though. Drier weather is filtering in behind it, as seen on PW
satellite imagery, dropping from 2.5 inches to about 2.0 inches.

The GFS, ECMWF-HiRes and Canadian Ensemble all show the monsoon
trough developing into Micronesia over the coming week. The ECMWF is
the weakest, but this is at least partly due to its run ending at day
10 while the GFS and Canadian go out to day 16. This indicates that
this monsoon episode may just have the goods to keep on going. Also,
both the Canadian and GFS are showing signs of possible tropical
cylone development, although in radically different places at this
time. Key takeaway: the chance is increasing, but it`s too early to
say when or where, let alone panic. Let`s just watch it develop, and
when it comes in closer, we`ll be able to tell more.

&&

.Marine...
Seas have risen to between 4 and 6 feet. They are expected to rise
another foot by Tuesday, then maintain through Wednesday. For the
second half of the week they will gradually diminish by 1 foot. A
small trade-wind surge will allow occasional fresh to strong gusts
through Tuesday. This could make the marine environment challenging,
conditions are expected to fall just short of advisory criteria
though.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Spotty showers are seen across most of the region with strong
convective activity seen near Majuro producing a good amount of
thunderstorms. A weak ITCZ is expected to develop across the region
with scattered showers for Kosrae and Majuro today, and then bringing
in scattered showers for Pohnpei this evening. Also expecting
scattered showers for Chuuk today as a trough south of Chuuk
continues to develop as it moves through the region.

Altimetry passes this afternoon show combined seas between 3 and 5
feet for the forecast areas.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap...
Showers are forecast to increase significantly by Tuesday as a
disturbance develops and moves across the region. Strong divergence
aloft will allow for heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop. Both
the GFS and ECMWF indicate Yap and Palau scattered to numerous
showers but slightly favor Palau to receive more showers.

Combined seas of 3 to 4 feet are expected to increase another 2 feet
by the midweek, followed by another period of diminishing sea heights
during the weekend.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Stanko
Micronesia: Hong