286
FXUS61 KGYX 270819
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
419 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north today, passing through the region
tonight. A cold front then passes overhead Tuesday. An upper
level trough slowly crosses the region Wednesday through Friday
with more scattered showers and near seasonable temperatures.
High pressure passes south of the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mix of fog, drizzle, and showers this morning, before showers
become more dominant this afternoon. Fog will be most impactful
towards the coast and southern NH this morning, retreating back
to the immediate coast for much of the afternoon.

Overcast skies are expected today as onshore flow feeds the low
levels with moisture amid an improving moisture depth. Daytime
heating will contribute to some shower development this
afternoon, but some uncertainty just how widespread or numerous
these showers are. Not a washout, but also not as stellar as the
previous two days.

Leaned a bit cooler with temperatures today considering the
expected cloud cover, and that the warm front won`t arrive until
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
While these conditions will keep Monday moot on Memorial Day,
the main area of precipitation arrives closer to the evening and
overnight hours. Low pressure will push NE through the Great
Lakes, lifting a warm front through the CWA. Hires guidance is
depicting a plume of rain, perhaps with embedded thunder, to
cross the region after 6pm local. The onshore flow component
plus surging PWATs should allow for locally enhanced rainfall on
the SE slopes of the Whites, where the heaviest rainfall totals
are expected this event. While widespread impacts are not
anticipated, hiking trails that cross flashy rivers or streams
may become treacherous with runoff this evening and overnight.

No big changes here in QPF, guidance has settled on an envelop
that hasn`t changed too much. My modifications were mainly to
decrease rainfall in the lee of the Whites where downsloping
should limit QPF on the NW side.

Temperatures may surge a few degrees warmer for a very mild
night in May. Lows may only fall into the mid 60s for much of
southern NH, with mid to upper 50s for southern ME.

Tuesday is expected to be drier, but will feature a passing cold
front that will freshen the area with drier air aloft and some
deeper mixing with a breeze. Temperatures return to the mid 70s
to low 80s for the day. There will be the chance of some showers
with passage of the front, but some uncertainty on further
instability that could cause some thunder. Opted to not include
thunder at this time considering the dry air aloft which would
likely limit coverage of deeper cells.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: An upper level trough and cutoff low pressure system
will settle near Northern New England through much of next week,
which will result in scattered showers at times along with near
average temperatures. Drier conditions are then possible by
next weekend.

Impacts: Little to no major weather related impacts are expected.

Forecast Details: Other than an isolated shower across the mtns
and near Canadian Border, Tuesday night will be dry with lows
into the 50s. A secondary cold front will then cross on
Wednesday into Thursday as we remain under broad cyclonic flow
with cutoff low pressure near the region. This will result in
renewed chances for scattered showers at times along with partly
sunny skies. Highs on Wednesday will be mild ahead of the front
with readings into the 70s to near 80 degrees before cooler air
arrives on Thursday with highs only into the 50s across the
north and 60s to perhaps near 70 south.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible on Wednesday as daytime heating
allows for some modest instability to develop. Thursday night will
be on the cool side with lows perhaps into the 30s across the north
and 40s elsewhere. Slightly warmer temperatures are then possible on
Friday as the h5 trough axis slowly begins to move east and much of
the day should be dry. After another cool night on Friday,
temperatures will slowly begin to recover towards next weekend with
mainly dry conditions likely.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread IFR and LIFR expected today amid lowered
ceilings and some visibility restrictions due to fog. SHRA
becomes more widespread this afternoon, with more persistent RA
this evening and overnight. LLWS possible in southern ME
terminals this evening and overnight. Slow improvement to MVFR
is expected Tuesday morning SW to NE. VFR will be possible for
much of the area by mid Tuesday afternoon with winds gusting to
around 20 kt with passing front.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are likely Tuesday night
through Friday, although some MVFR restrictions will be possible
at times within scattered -SHRA and lower ceilings. Some
nighttime valley fog will also be possible, which could result
in additional restrictions at KLEB and KHIE.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions expected today as onshore gusts
increase. This will also promote a growing wind wave Tuesday,
perhaps lingering into the evening. Periods of fog and low
stratus expected today and tonight, which could cause low
visibility. This improves Tuesday as a cold front passes over
the waters.

Long Term...Southerly winds become westerly behind a cold front
Tuesday evening. Winds will then primarily remain out of the
west through the remainder of the week with gusts at times
approaching 20 kts. Seas of 4-6 ft across the outer waters are
likely Tuesday through part of Wednesday before decreasing and
remaining below 5 ft through the remainder of the week. Across
the bays seas of generally 1-3 ft can be expected.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ151.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Tubbs