815
FXUS61 KGYX 062025
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
425 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area this evening with some showers and
possibly some thunder, mainly in the mountains. An upper low
slowly approaches from the west tonight bringing more scattered
showers Friday. The upper low lingers over New England into
early next week keeping chances of showers in the forecast most
days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Impacts:
*An isolated heavier shower or stronger thunderstorm is
 possible in Western New Hampshire tonight.

Some brief light showers are crossing the area at the moment
associated with a shortwave. These will be tapering off heading
into the evening as they lose instability, however SPC
mesoanalysis and forecast soundings show 300-500 J/kg of CAPE,
so a rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out. The main show will be
tonight as an upper low and surface frontal boundary approach
the area. A healthy line of showers has already developed along
this boundary and is currently in central New York. This won`t
reach the New Hampshire border until around 8 or 9 PM, and that
will be right as instability is waning. That being said Western
New Hampshire may have a chance to see a heavier shower and/or
isolated strong thunderstorm as PWAT values are still up around
1.75" and forecast soundings show warm cloud depth in the range
of 12-13 kft. They should be moving right along, however
anything that is initially slow or begins to train will have to
be watched for isolated flooding. Showers will come and go as
visible radar shows this is a narrow band that will be breaking
down further as it crosses our area. Toward the coast may not
see much at all as onshore flow has advected cool moist air
inland, and in fact some areas are already beginning to fog in.
This will persist through the night as well as patchy fog
possible for areas that see decent rain. Low temperatures will
be in the 50s across the north and coast and closer to 60
through southern and interior zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Impacts:
*  No significant weather impacts expected

Friday will start dry in many places behind the front, but the
chance for scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will
return later in the day as height falls generate a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE. Lack of synoptic forcing and persistent onshore
flow means the highest shower coverage will probably be north of
the mountains. Anything that develops to the south will be
convective in nature and therefore more isolated, so have kept
PoPs on the lower side to message that uncertainty in where
those will develop. Lowest PoPs are along the coast where the
aforementioned onshore flow will hinder instability. Otherwise,
it will be a pleasant day with partly cloudy skies across much
of the area. High temperatures will range from the low 80s in
southern New Hampshire to low 70s north of the mountains. The
coast will stay a bit cooler, in the 60s.

Any showers that do develop will taper off quickly Friday night
as they lose their instability and low pressure looks like it
will finally be making its departure off to the northeast. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 50s across the south to
low 50s through the interior and points north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The overall pattern across the northeast in the extended will
consist of moist cyclonic flow due to upper level low pressure
lingering across the northeast US and southeast Canada. This
will lead to unsettled weather at times. But at this time it
does not look like there will be any washouts, just mainly
chancy to low likely PoPs for showers and thunderstorms at
times, peaking in the afternoons with diurnal heating. This will
be mainly true Saturday through Monday before a period of
ridging takes hold thereafter. Highest PoPs each day are in the
mountains, with lesser PoPs in southern NH where it could be
dry most of the time.

Temperatures each day will be in the 70s for most folks, with
60s in the mountains. A warming trend will take place Tuesday
and Wednesday with highs returning back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...IFR conditions are expected along the coast as
areas of fog develop tonight. KLEB and other western New
Hampshire terminals may experience brief restrictions in heavy
rain as a line of showers moves through tonight. Friday looks
mainly VFR once overnight fog clears. There is a chance for
isolated afternoon thunderstorms.

Long Term...Outside of scattered showers and an isolated
thunderstorm, or two, ceilings will be mainly VFR through
Tuesday. Winds also remain on the lighter side, generally less
than 10 kt with westerly gusts possibly 20 to 25 KT Saturday and
Sunday afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are not
expected through Friday night. Dense marine fog is expected to
develop tonight. Seas will be in the 3-4ft range and winds will
be 10-15 kts with some gusts to 20 kts.

Long Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are not
expected through Tuesday. Seas will generally be 3-4 ft with
winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 20kts.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Ekster