965
FXUS61 KGYX 100108
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
908 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Somewhat unsettled daytime weather is expected to continue
into Tuesday as upper level low pressure lingers overhead.
Warmer and drier weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday
with a cold frontal passage possible Friday or Saturday with
more showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...


9 PM UPDATE...Current 00Z observations are running a little
cooler than forecast. Opted to interpolate observations and
drop overnight temperatures by a degree. Otherwise current
forecast is on track, with no adjustments needed elsewhere.

4 PM DISCUSSION...A short wave trough and weakening low
pressure continue to swing through the area this afternoon with
the steady shield of rain moving offshore at this time. Partial
clearing will continue to take place late this afternoon and
early evening with weak surface-based instability developing
beneath the upper low. This will likely aid in scattered
convective showers for the balance of the afternoon, with some
thunder possible. These will weaken and dissipate with the loss
of heating this evening. However, BKN clouds will continue from
time to time overnight. There should be enough of a gradient to
preclude widespread dense fog, but we do expect at least patchy
where conditions go clear and near-calm. Low temperatures a
blend of the MOS products.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level low pressure will continue to wobble over northern
New England on Monday. A fair start will gradually lead to
increasing boundary layer CU and then convective showers, with a
possible thunderstorm, especially in the mountains. Highs in the
60s in the mountains, 70s elsewhere. Variably cloudy Monday
night with upper low remaining overhead, but showery weather
ends in the evening with loss of diurnal heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: High pressure approaches from the west Tuesday with
some showers possible, mainly across the mountains. This high
will pass to the south into Wed/Thurs as lift remains limited
for possible shower coverage. Low pressure tracking across
Quebec will remain north Friday, but bring warm/cold fronts into
the region which will aid in development of more widespread
showers or thunderstorms late week. Temperatures mild through
midweek, increasing late week.

Details: Tuesday and Wednesday will both be similar days with
cool NW to W flow moderating temperatures and little lift to
speak of. But, there will be plenty of moisture through the
column for cloud cover and the chance for showers where daytime
heating/convergence can muster weak convection. Guidance is
actually quite spread out for QPF both days, but have currently
limited this to the mountains on Tuesday. This seems to be a
good bet considering weak onshore flow to the SE and incoming
northwesterly flow on the other side. Shear and storm motion are
weak, so these may stay put over summits with little movement.
Think the same could be in store for Wednesday, but drier air
will be at the surface to limit shower coverage further.

Later in the week is a bit more uncertain, but warmer. Thursday
may be dry, but there will also be a warm front in the region
that could focus some shower development late in the day. The
positioning of this will be determined by the parent low that
will be tracking across Quebec late week. This leads into Friday
when conditions may be more primed for thunderstorms when the
low nears and pulls a cold front through during the day or later
in the evening. Will keep a wide window here given the
uncertainties, but CSU MLP for severe has been highlighting
portions of the area fairly consistently Friday. Should the low
move through as scheduled in the Friday timeframe, a pleasant
weekend may be in store with drier conditions and temperatures
in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term... Improvement is foreseen for late this afternoon
and evening as low pressure moves away from the region. VFR
conditions are expected tonight except for patchy fog. A few
convective showers and storms will occur again on Monday, and
this would be mainly in the afternoon and across the northern
mountains.

Long Term...Some lowered ceilings will be possible across
northern NH and far western ME Tuesday, trending VFR Wednesday.
The airmass mid week could support some low stratus or fog over
the coastal waters, thus some terminals such as RKD or PWM could
be impacted at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Southwest winds of 10 to 15 kt with gusts around 20
kt (a few around 25 kt) will continue tonight, with more of a
turn to the north Monday night. Seas remain 3 to 4 feet.

Long Term...Light SSE flow Tues-Thurs with wave heights 1 to 2
ft as broad low pressure passes to the north with another
surface low to the south. High pressure passes south mid to late
week. This will keep moisture in the region that could develop
marine status or fog through much of the week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cempa/Palmer
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Cornwell