393
FXUS61 KGYX 072008
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
408 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low moving overhead will bring chances of showers and
few thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, especially during the
afternoon hours. Somewhat unsettled weather remains possible
into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Impacts:
* No significant weather impacts expected

What remains of the line of showers from overnight has cleared
our CWA and, as expected, in its wake some convective cells have
developed. With poor lapse rates across the area they actually
haven`t produced much lightning. As we head into the evening
lapse rates slightly steepen as the upper low begins to move
overhead, however that remain less than ideal at 5-6 C/km. Any
updrafts that are able to sustain themselves do have 60-65 kts
of shear to work with so can`t rule out a stronger storm, but
confidence is high that they will stay sub-severe. The best
chance for a stronger storm looks to be along the New Hampshire-
Maine border where easterly flow is converging with westerly
flow. As the upper level low continues to move overhead tonight,
an associated shortwave trough will sustain showers mainly
north of the mountains. With PWATs still up around an inch there
will likely be some embedded heavy rain. So far storms have
been moving right along through that area, but as we get closer
to the pivot point of the trough storm motion slows a little.
Flash Flood Guidance in this area is still 1.5"-2" per hour
which is at the maximum end of what ensembles have for rates.
Mean rates are around half an inch per hour and model soundings
show warm cloud depths only around 6 kft, therefore not seeing
potential for flash flooding. That being said these areas did
see a decent amount of rain during recent events, so heavier
rain and slower storm motion may still lead to some minor
nuisance type flooding, but nothing substantial. Aforementioned
westerly flow should dry things out tonight so not expecting
much fog, with the exception of the Midcoast where proximity to
the center of surface low pressure will keep flow onshore
through tonight. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper
50s along the coast and through the interior, with lower 50s
north of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will continue through the morning as the upper level
low continues to move overhead. This will also steepen lapse
rates with the latest CAMs showing more toward 7 C/km, but there
is going to be much less shear. Similar to today, development
of storms looks like it will be highly dependent on areas
breaking into the sunshine so they will still be quite
scattered. Contrary to today, the coast has a much better chance
of seeing showers and a storm Saturday as that is the area that
is the most likely to see mostly sunny skies. With marginal
convective parameters, wouldn`t expect anything severe but a
stronger storm with some gusty winds cant be ruled out. At the
very least models still have PWATs near an inch, so a downpour
is more likely. Areas south of the mountains will see highs in
the 70s and areas to north, that will likely stay mostly cloudy,
will only reach the upper 60s.

A few showers may linger into Saturday night, but for a
majority of the area it will be a dry night as the upper low
finally departs and some weak ridging builds in. Skies clear
some overnight, but will begin to thicken again heading toward
Sunday morning as the next trough approaches. Low temperatures
will be similar to tonight; mid to upper 50s south of the
mountains and lower 50s to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The overall pattern across the northeast in the extended will
continue to consist of moist cyclonic flow due to upper level
low pressure lingering across the northeast US and southeast
Canada. This will lead to unsettled weather at times. But at
this time it does not look like there will be any washouts, just
mainly chancy to low likely PoPs for showers and thunderstorms,
peaking in the afternoons with diurnal heating. This will be
mainly true Sunday through Monday before a period of ridging
possibly moves in. Highest PoPs each day are in the mountains,
with lesser PoPs in southern NH where it could be dry most of
the time. Midweek looks drier but there will still be the threat
for diurnal showers.

Temperatures each day will be in the 70s for most folks, with
60s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Some IFR restrictions are likely at coastal
terminals and AUG again tonight, but elsewhere ceilings should
be MVFR/VFR in rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Once any
low ceilings lift and fog dissipates, Saturday should be mainly
VFR with another chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Fog is not expected Saturday night.

Long Term...Local IFR to MVFR conditions possible Sunday morning
at coastal terminals. Otherwise, local MVFR conditions in
showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and again
Monday afternoon. Some nighttime fog possible, especially where
it rained the previous daytime.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are not
expected through Saturday night. Some dense fog is likely again
tonight, mainly off the Midcoast. Seas will be 3- 4ft with some
breezy westerly wind gusts approaching 20 kts Saturday.

Long Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are not
expected through Tuesday. However, there could be areas of low
visibilities in fog.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Ekster