604
FXUS61 KGYX 221036
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
636 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod lingers begins slowly drifting
southward today, and continues moving early this week. The low
continues to bring high surf and minor coastal flooding impacts
along the coastline today. High pressure builds southward
across New England by early next week, bringing seasonable
temperatures and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

6:35am Update... No notable changes with this update as the
forecast remains on track. A few lingering sprinkles moving through
southeast New Hampshire are expected to dissipate over the next
hour or two, but otherwise conditions remain quiet across the
forecast area this morning.

Previous...

Low pressure south of Cape Cod slowly moves southward and away
from New England today as high pressure begins to press
southward into the area. An isolated shower can`t be ruled out
early today across parts of southeast New Hampshire, but
otherwise the rain from the system has come to an end. Clouds
gradually thin and become more broken through the day, with
sunshine increasing from north to south. Seasonably cool air
remains in place with a steady northeasterly flow, keeping
highs in the 60s across most of the area today. The northeasterly
flow continues to bring elevated surf, and the threat of
dangerous rip currents along the coast. Minor coastal flooding
is expected once again for this afternoon`s high tide, and looks
similar to yesterday`s tide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Skies continue to clear through the overnight as the high
continues to build in. With a cool airmass in place and lowering
dew points, temperatures drop into the 40s across most of the
area. Some upper 30s are likely across the northern valleys, and
possible through some of the more sheltered valley locations
outside of the mountains. Patchy fog is likely through the river
valleys across northern and western areas overnight.

The axis of high pressure becomes centered across New England
tomorrow. Despite this, clouds will be on the increase as
moisture from a system in the Great Lakes spills eastward
through the ridge. The morning starts out bright, but clouds
will be on the increase by late morning and put a cap on
temperatures for the day. Highs top out in the mid to upper 60s
across most of the area, but there is room to bring highs down a
bit if the clouds arrive slightly earlier into western areas
following a cool night. Large breaking waves and rip currents
look to continue tomorrow from the offshore system. However, the
coastal flooding threat will be dropping as the astronomical
tides drop from their monthly peak.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The 500 MB pattern through next week across NOAM continues to
become more blocky, especially over the E half of the continent
and the N Atlantic. The cooler ridge that move in for early next
week will be replaced by an approaching trough to our W, and
which models close off /to differing degrees/ over the E CONUS
Thu-Fri. So, the period from Wed-Fri looks unsettled, although
unlikely to rain the whole period, still need to have models in
batter agreement on the timing, and strength of the systems.
Still, it should warm up in the mid levels mid-late week, but
given the way things are setting up, it looks like onshore or NE
flow may dominate, keeping temps cooler, but still fairly close
to normal. Interestingly enough, it is around the time of the
equinox, and there is almost no below freezing air at 850 mb S
of the arctic circle, and no sign of a major cold air intrusion
any time soon according tho the models.

Monday and Tuesday should be partly to mostly sunny with highs
mostly in the mid to upper 60s, and overnight lows mid 40s to
low 50s. By Wed, as the 500 trough deepens equatorward out of
ON/QC will begin to see the threat of some showers, but for now
the best chance looks more Wed night. Highs on Wed may end up a
few degrees cooler than Mon or Tue but still in the 60s. That
upper level closed low then drift Se across New England and
deepens Thu, which continue the threat for rain, and then may or
may not produce a coastal low near S New England which moves
offshore. Moisture in the column is fairly high by Friday, and
the 12Z Euro brings a bullseye of heavy rain into New England,
which does raise a red flag, as sometimes the models are onto
something, but it is more of general signal to watch for heavy
rain, that something to be taken too literally. Despite the
rain, the warmer and more humid air will allow for highs mid 60s
to around 70 at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions prevail through tomorrow at
most terminals. PSM, MHT, and CON see a period of near marginal
MVFR ceilings this morning through the early afternoon, with
brief MVFR restrictions possible at times. LEB is also an
exception this morning with a brief period of fog possible
around sunrise. Valley fog is then likely at HIE and LEB
tonight, which then burns off by mid morning tomorrow.

Long Term...While winds are likely to remain below SCA criteria
the pulses of low pressure S of the waters over the next
several days will keep the swell up near 5-6 feet through the
middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions continue with elevated seas from an
offshore low pressure center. The low gradually moves away
through tomorrow, but continues to bring 5-8 foot waves through
at least tomorrow. High pressure gradually builds southward
across the waters through tomorrow.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Mon-Wed, although flight
restrictions become possible by Wed night into Thu, as there is
some potential for rain and low cigs.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides are beginning to lower from their astronomical peak for
the month. With an ocean storm still spinning south of Cape
Cod...storm surge will continue to run between one half and one
foot on northeast winds, along with breaking waves of 4 to 7
feet along the coastline. Another round of minor coastal
flooding...splash- over...and erosion is likely from Portland
south this afternoon. By tomorrow, astro tides look to be just
low enough to keep water levels below flood stage, but it will
still be close at Hampton.

Beach surveys and Emergency Managers continue to indicate
compromised dune systems along the coastline from our storms
this past winter...which will limit natural protection.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023-024.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon
     for MEZ023-024.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon
     for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Cempa