248
FXUS61 KGYX 150221
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1021 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions will continue through the middle of next
week with temperatures running above normal. An area of low
pressure off the Southeast coast will lift north Wednesday
bringing increasing moisture to the region while the chances
for measurable precipitation remains low. High pressure looks to
build back into the region late in the week and next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1020 PM Update...A good radiational cooling night is underway
as areas under clear skies are falling fast. Elsewhere, some
scattered low clouds and the beginnings of fog are present. The
forecast remains on track with fog becoming more prevalent in
the usual spots after midnight. This update just freshened up
the near term with the latest temperature and dewpoint
observations.

630 PM Update...A few sprinkles are still present in the White
Mountains at this time, but with daytime heating being their
main forcing this activity should fizzle out over the next hour.
The going forecast is well on track so this update served just
to refresh the near term with the latest temperature and
dewpoint observations.

Previous Discussion...
With loss of diurnal heating as forcing...showers will dissipate
over the White Mtns. Then it is more of the same. Clear skies
and light winds will promote radiational cooling. And with high
pressure more centrally located over the forecast area...low
temps tonight will be cooler than this morning. Some 40s are
likely. We should also see more widespread valley fog...and I
have added locally dense fog is the most prone locations of the
CT River Valley and the Merrimack Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and dry again Sun...with highs climbing into the upper 70s
and lower 80s. Rinse and repeat again Sun night with good
radiational cooling. Maybe not quite as favorable as
tonight...but within a few degrees. I more or less went
persistence on the valley fog locations and magnitude.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layer ridging over the Northeast will continue to bring mostly
dry weather and temperatures running above normal through mid week.
Moisture associated with a sub tropical disturbance off the Carolina
coast will lift northward Wednesday bringing more in the way of
clouds and slight chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday. A
front moving through SE Canada may shunt this moisture back south
late in the week with high pressure building back in next
weekend.

Much of New England is running a 1-2 inch rainfall deficit for the
month of September and that deficit looks to increase through mid
week. Monday and Tuesday will see high temperatures into the 80s
with mostly sunny skies Monday and a mix of sun and clouds Tuesday.
Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow lows Monday night to
drop into the 50s with patchy fog.

Moisture associated with a disturbance off the Southeast coast will
lift northward Tuesday night into Wednesday. The 12Z model suite is
in decent agreement that much of the area will remain dry with
chances for rain increasing across southern NH late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Model solutions then diverge with the position of
any forcing for ascent to act upon this moisture Wednesday night
through Friday. The majority of ensemble members keep the forecast
area mostly dry during this period, although a select few bring a
soaking rainfall to the region. Have mainly stuck with the NBM,
which keeps PoPs below 20 percent Thursday and Friday. A trough axis
rotating through the Canadian Maritimes looks to send a cold front
through the region Friday with temperatures returning closer to
normal into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions prevail during the day...with
afternoon sea breezes changing wind direction to south
southeast. Overnight local LIFR conditions expected in valley
fog. Most susceptible will be LEB...HIE..and CON...in that
order.

Long Term...Mainly VFR during the day time through the period.
Night time valley fog will be possible most nights that will
bring potential for restrictions for a few hours before
daybreak. Low pressure moving up the East Coast may spread some
rain into southern New Hampshire Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds.

Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds through
the period as high pressure remains over the waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Baron/Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Schroeter