Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
899 FXHW60 PHFO 131354 CCA AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Honolulu HI 354 AM HST Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge will linger north of the Hawaiian Islands into next week producing moderate to breezy trade winds. Weak upper level troughing will keep brief periods of windward showers in the forecast favoring windward and mountain areas with drier conditions over leeward locations. Clouds and showers will develop along the Kona slopes of the Big Island each afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... A fairly typical moderate to breezy trade wind weather pattern will continue as a high pressure ridge remains locked in place north of the Hawaiian Islands into next week. Weak upper level troughing will keep the trade wind temperature inversion heights between 5,000 to 7,000 feet for much of the forecast period. Trade wind inversion heights at this level will keep brief periods of shower activity in the forecast, mainly over windward and mountain areas as the trade winds lift the moisture over the windward mountain peaks. Shower activity in these windward mountain areas will trend higher in the overnight to early morning hours. Drier conditions are forecast over leeward locations. High level cirrus clouds will move over the state into the weekend, enhancing sunrise and sunset colors. Not much day to day changes in the weather forecast over the next seven days. A slight increasing trend in the easterly trade wind speeds may develop by next week Wednesday. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy trade winds will persist over the next couple of days. SHRA and low cigs will favor windward and mauka areas bringing brief periods of MVFR conds. A few SHRA may make it to leeward sides but otherwise, VFR conds should prevail. AIRMET Sierra for mtn obsc is in effect for windward portions of Oahu and Molokai. && .MARINE... Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue through the weekend, as the surface ridge remains north of the area. This supports the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continuing for the windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island each day. Surf along south facing shores will hold steady today due to a mix of a fading south-southwest swell and a small, medium-period southeast swell moving through. A fresh, long-period south swell is expected to arrive tonight into Friday, then peak late Friday into Saturday. This swell could produce near warning-level surf through its peak late Friday into Saturday. A gradual downward trend is expected Sunday into early next week. After this swell moves out, very little swell is expected next week beginning around Tuesday. Surf along north-facing shores will remain up above the summertime average (flat) today as a short-period north- northwest swells move through. A downward trend is expected Friday through the weekend. Surf along east-facing shores will remain small and choppy each day due to a limited trade wind fetch upstream of the islands. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...SMW MARINE...Gibbs