Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
636 FXHW60 PHFO 201911 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 911 AM HST Thu Jun 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure far north of the islands will support locally strong trade winds through the weekend. Brief, passing showers will favor windward areas, especially during nights and mornings, with a few sprinkles occasionally spreading leeward. && .DISCUSSION... Seasonably benign trade wind weather will continue through the forecast period. A strong, but slightly elevated subsidence inversion on the 12Z soundings translates to the current stable low clouds that are delivering a few showers to windward and mauka areas, which are observed on visible satellite and radar this morning. Instability and moisture aloft associated with a mid and upper-level low west of Kauai is also noted in the Lihue sounding. Locally strong trade winds will continue through the weekend, with potential for some modest easing in trade wind speeds mid to late next week as the high to the north moves northeast. Increased precipitable water arriving early Friday will mark the onset of a somewhat wetter trade wind pattern, with increased dew points also making it feel more humid. The upper low over the area will slowly drift westward, funneling periodic high clouds into the area for the next several days. Today is the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere, with the summer solstice occurring at 1051 AM HST this morning. && .AVIATION... Breezy to locally strong trade winds will persist through the next couple of days and usher in bands of showers to the island chain`s windward areas. Isolated spillover showers will be possible along leeward slopes, especially during the late night and early morning hours. VFR conditions will generally prevail except for in passing showers where brief MVFR conditions will be possible. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level turbulence lee of mountains due to the breezy trade winds. AIRMET Sierra could return across windward areas later this afternoon or evening as we see a slight increase of clouds and passing showers. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure centered around 850 nm northeast of Hawaii will slowly expand westward through this weekend and maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the islands. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all local waters. Fresh to near- gale winds will hold through the weekend and continue into early next week. Expect minimal south shore surf into Friday, below seasonal norms. A mix of a small, long- period south swell and a shorter period southeast swell may push surf close to seasonal average during the weekend. As these swells slowly decline early next week, another small, long period south- southwest swell is expected to fill in. Strengthening trades will bring elevated surf along east facing beaches through this weekend and into early next week. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny through this weekend with small pulses of northwest swell possible early next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...Kino MARINE...Thomas