044
FXHW60 PHFO 221953
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
953 AM HST Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure far north of the islands will maintain breezy and
gusty trade winds through early next week. Somewhat wet conditions
will give way to a more typical pattern of passing windward
showers later today and Sunday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy and gusty trades remain in place this morning as a 1030 mb
surface high lingers approximately 900 miles north of the state.
The mid-level ridge remains in place over the region maintaining
stable conditions across the islands. This should keep the gusty
trade wind flow just below Wind Advisory strength. Shower activity
across most windward and mauka areas continue to wane as drier
air moves into the islands. Expect conditions west of Maui to be
mostly dry this afternoon with passing windward showers. Windward
Big Island will remain wet through the day, and likely into the
evening, while showers develop along the Kona slopes in the
afternoon.

The strong surface high will remain anchored north of the state
Sunday through at least Monday, maintaining the breezy and gusty
trade winds near current strength. A stable and rather typical
summertime rainfall pattern will prevail, leading to modest
rainfall over windward slopes. Aside from afternoon showers on the
Kona slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas will be mostly dry.

Trades will decline to moderate strength around Tuesday or
Wednesday as the high to the north finally weakens. Some increase
in showers will be possible as a disturbance aloft approaches
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally windy trades will continue through Monday.
Showery cloud bands embedded within trade flow will produce
periods of MVFR conditions across windward areas of each island
through the morning hours. Afternoons will be clearer and drier.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration
for north and east slopes of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Maui.
The entire island of Lanai and the eastern slopes of the Big
Island are also included in this AIRMET, which may need to be
adjusted as cloud cover changes in the afternoon.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low level turb over and
downwind of island terrain due to the breezy trade winds. This
AIRMET will likely continue through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong easterly trades will continue into early next week,
supporting the Small Craft Advisory in place for all waters. Seas
will remain rough, with heights hovering around and just under
the advisory level over exposed waters. Guidance shows a slight
downward trend Tuesday through midweek due to the surface ridge
potentially weakening to the north.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough through early
next week due to the aforementioned strong trades locally and
upstream of the state. A gradual downward trend is possible
Tuesday through midweek.

Surf along south-facing shores will continue to trend up this
weekend as a small south swell moves through. This should be
short-lived, with a downward trend expected early next week.
Despite a blocking high that has set up over our typical swell
window near/southeast of New Zealand, a gale has formed to its
northeast with the head of the fetch aimed at the islands within
the 180 to 200-degree directional band. Given the shorter travel
distance, surf associated with this source should trend up late
next week.

Surf along north-facing shores could trend up above flat levels
early next week due to a small, medium-period northwest swell from
a marginal gale lifting northeastward near the Aleutians. On its
heels is a compact storm-force low, currently several hundred
nautical miles east of Japan, that could send a similar northwest
swell through the area late next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...Powell
MARINE...JVC