Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
168 FXHW60 PHFO 180645 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 845 PM HST Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will hold through the end of the week. Our typical dry season trade wind pattern is expected Wednesday through Saturday with passing showers focused over windward slopes. && .DISCUSSION... Latest satellite and radar imagery show an area of numerous clouds and showers moving mainly over the windward areas of Maui and the Big Island earlier this evening and just now reaching windward Oahu. This enhanced area of showers will continue to provide an uptick in clouds and showers overnight for the rest of the state as it moves from east to west. Some showers will spill over to leeward areas of the smaller islands. The showers along the Kona that produced rainfall rates of up to 1 inch per hour has ended and can expect a drying trend through the rest of the night. A 1031 mb high sitting far north of the state should weaken some over the next several days. This translates to moderate to locally breezy trade winds slowly easing toward the end of the week into early next week. As far as rainfall, after tonight we should see our typical dry season weather with mostly dry conditions across leeward areas and scattered showers over windward areas primarily during the night and early morning hours return on Wednesday and persist through Saturday. The enhanced clouds and showers this evening is situated on the tail end of above normal moisture that has been moving through the state these past couple of days. Just upstream are moisture values that are near to below normal that will start to filter in over the state aiding in the drying trend. By early next week, global models are showing an upper level low dropping southward and within the vicinity of the state around Monday. At this time, it is too early to tell whether or not this will bring any unsettled weather to the state. But if it does, we could see an increase of shower coverage as early as Sunday of next week. Stay tuned for more details. && .AVIATION... A stable, moderate to breezy trade wind flow will prevail during the next couple of days. Stable conditions will prevail, with only limited areas of low ceilings and temporary MVFR conditions over windward areas. Aside from afternoon clouds over Kona slopes of the Big Island, VFR conditions will prevail. AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain will likely remain in effect during the next couple of days. AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration been cancelled for the windward areas of the Big Island as shower coverage decreased. No other AIRMETS are currently in effect. && .MARINE... High pressure north and northeast of the state will keep moderate to locally strong trade winds in place through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM Thursday. The SCA may need to be extended through the weekend. East shore surf will hold near seasonal levels through Thursday, then slowly lower Friday through early next week. A mix of southeast, south and southwest swells will keep small surf rolling into south facing shores through Monday. A slight bump in south shore surf is possible around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week as a slightly larger long-period southwest swell moves through. North shore surf will remain very small through the weekend. A nice bump in north shore surf is possible Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as a 3 to 4 foot medium to long-period northwest swell arrives. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Almanza AVIATION...Shigesato MARINE...Jelsema