Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
027 FXHW60 PHFO 251323 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 323 AM HST Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the state through much of next week. Expect moderate to locally breezy trade winds with brief passing showers favoring windward and mountain areas of each island in the overnight to early morning hours. && .DISCUSSION... High level cirrus clouds associated with a subtropical jet stream continue to stream from west to east over the islands. Two upper level lows as shown on water vapor imagery, west and northwest of Kauai, will weaken and remain north of the state without producing much impact to our island weather over the next few days. A fairly stable weather pattern remains in place through much of next week with subsidence inversion heights ranging from 5,000 to 7,000 feet above sea level. This means cloud heights will be limited with mostly isolated to scattered showers over windward areas as trade winds push the clouds up and over the mountain slopes of each island. Isolated showers are possible over the typically drier leeward areas. Only subtle day to day changes in island weather are in the mix into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy easterly trades will persist across the Hawaiian Islands through the rest of today. Sct SHRA will favor windward and mauka areas, with greater coverage expected during the overnight hours. Brief MVFR conds are possible in moderate SHRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward locations on all islands. AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low level turb downwind of terrain due to the breezy trade winds. && .MARINE... High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate to strong trade winds across the island chain through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windiest waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM Sunday. A trough will amplify and linger west of the islands Sunday through the middle of next week, resulting in a slight easing of the trades and a shift to a more east-southeast direction over the western end of the state. Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will prevail over the eastern waters. South shore surf will remain small and below the summer average through the middle of next week, with only small and inconsistent pulses of southwest swell expected. The next significant south- southwest swell (200 degrees) appears to move in toward the end of next week. East shore surf will decrease slightly this weekend then hold steady through late next week. Surf along north shores will remain very small with a slight bump possible late Sunday through Monday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...SMW MARINE...Jelsema