Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
934 FXHW60 PHFO 180200 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 400 PM HST Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will hold through the end of the week. Our typical dry season trade wind pattern is expected Wednesday through Saturday with passing showers focused over windward slopes. && .DISCUSSION... Latest satellite and radar imagery is showing scattered showers over select windward areas and some light to moderate showers over the Kona slopes of the Big Island and Ulupalakua area of Maui. Some of the showers near Kona is producing rainfall rates of up to 1 inch per hour. These showers should decrease this evening as the sun sets. A 1031 mb high sitting far north of the state should weaken some over the next several days and will result in the trade winds weakening a touch. Overall, we should see moderate to locally breezy trade winds hold through the weekend with a decrease possible early next week. As far as rainfall, we should see our typical dry season weather with mostly dry conditions across leeward areas and scattered showers over windward areas primarily during the night and early morning hours return on Wednesday and persist through Saturday. Shower coverage could be slightly higher tonight due to the lingering moisture as evident by some of the leeward showers this afternoon. By early next week, global models are showing an upper level low dropping southward and within the vicinity of the state around Monday. At this time, it is too early to tell whether or not this will bring any unsettled weather to the state. But if it does, we could see an increase of shower coverage as early as Sunday of next week. Stay tuned for more details. && .AVIATION... A stable, moderate to breezy trade wind flow will prevail during the next couple of days. Pockets of moisture moving along the trade wind flow will produce areas of MVFR conditions along windward slopes, and we will monitor for potential AIRMET Sierra mountain obscuration tonight. While VFR will dominate over most leeward areas, afternoon and evening cloud cover with isolated MVFR conditions will affect the Kona slopes of the Big Island. AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain will likely remain in effect during the next couple of days. && .MARINE... Fresh to locally strong trades will briefly ease Thursday and Friday before rebounding for the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM HST Thursday. A short-lived fresh swell originating with a thunderstorm complex well SE of the islands will traverse area waters through Thursday bringing a modest bump to favored S and SE facing exposures. Another slight bump in S shore surf is possible early next week as a slightly larger SW swell advances toward the islands. East shore surf will hold near seasonal levels through Wednesday, then slowly lower Thursday through early next week. North shore surf will remain very small through the weekend followed by a bump early next week as a small medium-to-long period NW swell arrives. The combination of high astronomical tides and water levels running around 0.6 to 0.8 feet higher than predicted will produce localized coastal inundation around the time of high tide this afternoon. The Coastal Flood Statement highlighting potential impacts will likely be dropped late this afternoon, since the magnitude of the tides will be decreasing during the next several days. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kino AVIATION...Wroe MARINE...JVC