Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
266 FXHW60 PHFO 210152 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 352 PM HST Thu Jun 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure far north of the islands will support locally strong trade winds through the weekend. Brief, passing showers will favor windward areas, especially during nights and mornings, with a few sprinkles occasionally spreading leeward. && .DISCUSSION... Locally strong trade winds will continue through the weekend, with potential for some modest easing in trade wind speeds mid to late next week as the high to the north moves northeast. Increased precipitable water arriving tonight will mark the onset of a somewhat wetter trade wind pattern, with increased dew points also making it feel more humid. Clouds and showers pushing through with the trade winds will favor windward and mauka areas, with isolated showers spilling to leeward sides of the smaller islands at times. Diurnal maximums for showers coverage will occur during the nighttime and early morning hours, with breaks occurring the middle of each day. An upper low over the area will slowly drift westward, funneling periodic high clouds into the area for the next several days. && .AVIATION... Breezy to locally strong trade winds will persist through the next couple of days and usher in bands of showers to the island chain`s windward areas. Isolated spillover showers will be possible along leeward slopes, especially during the late night and early morning hours. VFR conditions will generally prevail except for in passing showers where brief MVFR conditions will be possible. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level turbulence lee of mountains due to the breezy trade winds. AIRMET Sierra may return across windward areas especially Big Island later this afternoon or evening as we see a brief increase of clouds and passing showers. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure centered around 850 nm northeast of Hawaii will slowly expand westward this weekend into early next week and maintain fresh to strong trades across the islands and surrounding waters. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all local waters through Saturday night, but will likely need to be expanded further in time. Small background south swell energy can be noted on several of the near shore buoys this afternoon. This should lead to minimal south shore surf into Friday, below seasonal norms. A mix of a small, long- period south swell and a shorter period southeast swell may push surf close to seasonal average this weekend. As these swells slowly decline early next week, another small, long period south- southwest swell is expected to fill in. Fresh to strong trades will bring elevated, but choppy, surf along east facing beaches through this weekend and into early next week. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny through this weekend with small pulses of northwest swell possible early next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...Kino MARINE...Thomas