195
FXHW60 PHFO 110650
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
850 PM HST Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy trade winds will persist through the week as
broad high pressure remains north of the state. Stable conditions
will focus limited showers over windward areas, and leeward areas
will be rather dry, though leeward Big Island will experience
clouds and showers each afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A breezy and stable trade wind flow is producing a somewhat
dry June weather pattern. A 1030 mb surface high centered about
1050 miles north of Kauai is driving the trades, and a mid-level
ridge is maintaining an inversion based between 5000 and 7000 ft.
been measured.

Little change is expected through the week. The surface high will
move eastward during the next several days and settle far
northeast of the state by Saturday. A surface ridge trailing the
high will remain north of the islands, but it may be weakened
enough for us to experience a subtle decrease in trade winds for
Friday into the weekend. Persistent mid-level ridging over the
state will maintain a stable pattern of mainly windward rainfall
through at least Friday. Aside from afternoon showers on the Kona
slopes of the Big Island, somewhat dry weather will persist for
leeward areas. Random pockets of shallow moisture moving along the
trade wind flow will periodically boost windward rainfall, and
one such area is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. A weak
disturbance aloft could drive an increase in showers during the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy and dry trades will hold steady. SHRA and MVFR conds should
be confined to windward and mauka locations through the period.
Otherwise VFR conds will prevail.

No AIRMETs currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue through much of the
week, as the surface ridge remains north of the area. This
supports the Small Craft Advisory continuing for the windier
channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island.
Guidance suggests a potential weakness forming in the ridge
northwest of the state next weekend, which could lead to moderate
to fresh east-southeast trades.

Surf along south-facing shores will hold around the advisory
level overnight due to a long-period south-southwest swell moving
through. Observations at the offshore buoys have started easing
slightly this evening, with the peak energy lingering in the
14-16 second bands. This will result in a slow downward trend
through the day Tuesday, with heights likely dipping just below
the advisory level. The downward trend will continue through
midweek, with mainly a mix of the fading south-southwest swell and
a small, medium-period southeast swell. A similar long-period
south swell is expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday, then
peak late Friday into Saturday. This swell will hold through
early next week as it slowly fades.

Surf along north-facing shores will remain up above the
summertime average (flat) through a good portion of the week as
small, short-period north to north-northwest swells move through.
The next pulse should arrive Tuesday and hold through midweek.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain small and choppy through
the week, with a limited trade wind fetch across the eastern
Pacific.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for south facing shores
of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, Kahoolawe and Big Island.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Gibbs