200
FXUS64 KHGX 162338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

As remnants of Francine transition eastward, a mid-upper level ridge
will become more defined with the axis of the ridge cutting through
the heart of Texas. As this ridge settles in, another low pressure
system will swing down towards the Four Corners from the Pacific NW.
This will begin the omega blocking pattern that has been discussed
in the long-term for the last few days. While low pressure will sit
on either side of the state, high pressure in our area will keep
weather benign and on the warmer side. Lows for tonight will be in
the upper 60s in the Piney Woods and in the 70s elsewhere. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the upper 80s along the coast and in the 90s
inland.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Temperatures remain slightly above seasonally normal values during
the extended period as the synoptic pattern remains dominated by
an "omega block" with the prevailing ridge axis nearly overhead by
Wednesday. A slight increasing trend in temperatures is expected
through Friday as the aforementioned ridge strengthens, with
global models indicating max 500mb heights in the vicinity of
590-592 dam. This will generally result in high temperatures in
the mid/upper 90s for inland areas and the upper 80s to lower 90s
along the immediate coast. Overnight lows will generally remain in
the 70s.

While total PW values will recover somewhat by midweek to around
1.5 in, convection in the extended term will generally be limited
by the presence of a subsidence inversion. That being said,
a few isolated diurnally-driven storms offshore and perhaps along
the coast can`t be totally ruled out for the weekend. However, the
forecast as a whole remains generally rain-free.

Heat index values remain forecast to exceed 100 through most of
the extended period. While a Heat Advisory is not expected to be
needed for the time being, heat safety precautions should still
be considered if heading outdoors.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas where the seabreeze has moved through (generally IAH and
southward) can expect southeasterly winds around 10 knots over
the next few hours. Elsewhere, winds are light and variable.
Patchy fog may bring intermittent periods of reduced
visibilities/ceilings mainly between the 08Z-13Z timeframe. Winds
remain light and variable for most of the day, but the seabreeze
should bring another round of southeasterly winds near 10 knots
for IAH and southward in the late afternoon. An isolated shower
can`t be ruled out, but the chances are too low to include any SH
mentions in the TAFs.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Generally calm marine conditions will prevail for the foreseeable
future, with seas around 2 feet and winds around 5 to 10 knots. A
few isolated showers or storms are possible heading into the
weekend offshore, but strong storms are not expected. Winds will
remain in an onshore orientation through the weekend.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  75  94  76  94 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  77  86  79  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cady