171
FXUS64 KHGX 152338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Latest surface analysis indicates the presence of a weak surface
boundary over the northeastern portion of the area, running
roughly along a line from just north of Madisonville towards
Livingston as of 3 PM CDT. With robust surface moisture in place
and marginal but nonetheless present surface instability, the
development of scattered thunderstorms is possible over the next
3-6 hours. Radar imagery at the time of publication shows a
cluster of storms over Leon County, with additional activity
beginning to develop just northeast of Huntsville. A southwestward
expansion in storm coverage is anticipated as the afternoon/early
evening draws on, with the storm threat shifting to the northern
portions Greater Houston by 5-6 PM. High resolution guidance
remains split on how far southward of an expansion we will see,
but the bulk of activity should remain confined to areas north of
I-10. While severe impacts are not expected, a few stronger wind
gusts and isolated brief downpours may accompany any convection.

Storm activity will begin to diminish after sunset, with a partly
cloudy and calm night anticipated as winds shift to the northwest
behind the aforementioned boundary. These conditions could drive
the development of patchy fog through the early morning hours of
Monday. Overnight lows will generally sit in the 70s, perhaps
remaining at 80 along the immediate coast.

A less active day is expected on Monday as we begin to transition
into a pronounced mid/upper level blocking pattern that will keep
conditions warm but otherwise benign for several days. Look for
highs in the low to mid 90s, lows in the low to mid 70s, and
slightly lower dew points thanks to the transition to a light W/NW
wind.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

500mb analysis shows a classic omega blocking pattern setting up for
the majority of the week as a tropical low moves inland on the east
coast, and a series of low pressure systems move towards the Four
Corners/Central CONUS from the Pacific NW, resulting in a ridge and
ridge axis over the Great Plains/Texas area. This setup will keep SE
Texas relatively dry and subsidence will bring daytime temperatures
to normal and above normal temperatures for this time of year.
Despite the high pressure setup, southerly surface winds and low-
level moisture (particularly in the coastal areas) could result in
isolated showers/storms developing along the sea breeze Thursday
and Friday.

Low pressure from the Pacific NW will continue to move E this
weekend, with high pressure being forced southward into Mexico. The
area of low pressure along the E CONUS will come into close proximity
with an area of high pressure in the NE CONUS, resulting in a rex
block pattern. Here in SE Texas, there will be an increase in mid-
upper level PVA as a surface frontal boundary approaches. The
combination of PVA and forcing from the incoming frontal boundary
will result in an increase in rain chances going into this coming
weekend. Have maintained PoPs near the previous forecast as it is
still a bit far out in the long-range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

SHRA/TSRA activity is right now around the CLL-UTS-CXO areas. Have included
SHRA/TSRA in those TAFs, and will monitor trends for locations further
to the S. Rest of the evening/night will be mostly VFR with some fog
possible with the light winds in place. Cannot totally rule out isolated
MVFR/IFR ceiling development toward morning too, but will not mention
in this TAF package. VFR tomorrow with mainly light NW to N winds and
few/sct clouds. Might get seabreeze front and associated S to SE wind
shift to edge inland in the afternoon.  42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Winds will briefly shift to the north-northwest this evening/tonight
ahead of a passing weak boundary. Isolated showers/storms will also
be possible during this time frame. Light to occasionally onshore
winds resume by Monday afternoon. Winds will vary between
southwesterly and southeasterly throughout the day each day.
Isolated rain/storms are also possible with the best chances towards
the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  95  72  95 /  30   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  95  75  94 /  30   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  86  77  86 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Adams