452
FXUS64 KHGX 210823
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
323 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Ridging over SE Texas will continue to result in above normal
temperatures this weekend. Onshore flow at the surface will continue
to draw in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and create humid
conditions across the area. Isolated showers may occur similar to
yesterday with the sea breeze this afternoon.

Overnight lows will be in the 70s tonight and Sunday night. Low-
level moisture, high pressure aloft, and calm winds, will contribute
to patchy fog, with dense fog possible at times, this morning and
again Sunday morning.

Sunday will feature similar weather as the heat and humidity
continue.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

While Astronomical Fall is in full swing by Monday, the weather
around here this upcoming work week will still be feeling very
summer-like. Upper-level ridging over the northern Gulf will help
keep temperatures above normal for our area (though not as hot as
we have been this past week). Afternoon high temperatures will be
in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, and then low to mid 90s
for the rest of the region through at least Wednesday. There is an
upper- level low that will be swinging down through the Central
and Southern Plains towards the later half of the week, but the
exact timing and location of it is rather uncertain at this time.
A short wave associated with this low may swing through our area
as early as Wednesday helping to bring slightly drier and very
slightly cooler conditions. High temperatures Thursday and Friday
will be 1 to 3 degrees cooler than the first half of the week with
much of the area staying in the mid to upper 80s (with some
isolated spots of low 90s west of Katy. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the low to mid 70s for much of the area (and upper 70s
along the coast) through Wednesday. Then similarly to the high
temperatures, the lows will drop a few degrees for the second half
of the week with much of the area in the upper 60s to low 70s.

One other change from this past week to next week, is that with the
high pressure not directly overhead, there will be daily chances of
showers or storms developing along the sea breeze in the afternoons
generally along and south of I-45. These storms will also help cool
temperatures down locally wherever they pop-up.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Areas of MVFR with localized IFR are expected again tonight. The
best chance of fog will be over rural areas away from the
immediate coast and outside of urbanized areas. Though there is
some model guidance suggesting MVFR cigs could make into the city
of Houston and impact IAH, we continue to opt for a scenario where
the fog remains outside of the city. Any MVFR conditions should
break by mid-morning. Saturday appears similar to Friday. However,
a slightly steeper low-level gradient is expected to increase SE
winds somewhat by the afternoon. Therefore, we decided to
increase Saturday`s forecast winds by 2-3 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Much of the same conditions are expected through at least midweek
next week. There will be light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
(5-10kt during the day, then 10-15kt during the overnight and early
morning hours) and low seas (1-3ft) will continue through the
weekend and into next week. There will be increased chances of
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters
beginning Sunday night and continue through at least midweek next
week.

The NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure as it tracks through
the Caribbean and into the Southern Gulf by the middle of next week.
The NHC currently has a 50% (medium) probability of formation over
the next 7 days. This system has not yet developed, so it is still
far too early to determine it`s track, intensity, or any specific
impacts from it - but mariners should continue to monitor forecast
updates for it from the NHC through the next several days.

Fowler

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico as an area of
low pressure could develop by the early to middle part of next week.
Conditions are looking favorable for gradual development of this
system and could become a tropical depression by late next week as
it moves slowly northward or northwestward into the southern Gulf of
Mexico. The NHC currently has a 60% (medium) probability of
formation over the next 7 days. This system has not yet developed,
so it is still far too early to determine it`s track, intensity, or
any specific impacts from it. Don`t put too much stock into any
single deterministic model runs. Please continue to monitor the
latest forecasts and updates from the NHC at www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste/Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  94  75  93  75 /   0   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  80  87  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler