444
FXUS64 KHGX 282126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
426 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Well...that was interesting. That line of thunderstorms started out
around the Dallas/Fort Worth area earlier this morning and became
stronger as it entered the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. These
storms were severe throughout Southeast Texas as they pushed through
with winds of 70+ mph at times and quarter to golf ball sized hail.
Those strong winds led to 300,000+ of you to lose power along with
plenty of downed trees. Rainfall rates within the strongest of those
storms were 2-3" per hour, which led to street flooding especially
along feeder roads and underpasses. This water may take a bit to
drain, so please do NOT drive through any flooded roadways and do
NOT drive around any barricades. These storms are now offshore and
the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect has been cancelled
earlier than expected. Another interesting tidbit is that the low
temperature for today occurred during the afternoon hours for most of
us as these storms pushed through. We saw plenty of obs drop into
the upper 60s to low 70s earlier today!

Now that all of that is out of the way, let`s talk about the next
round of rainfall that moves in overnight. The 12Z CAMs weren`t all
that great with depicting today`s convection, so take this with a
grain of salt, but there is general consensus on tonight`s round of
rainfall being way less robust than what occurred earlier today. Most
of them depict a decaying line of showers and storms moving in from
the Hill Country along another shortwave. Some isolated stronger
storms can`t be ruled out of course, but the environment around here
has been pretty well worked over from today`s round of storms.
Temperatures overnight will be "cooler" than they have been recently
thanks to the rain-cooled air, expect lows to range from the upper
60s to the low 70s.

850mb temperatures will be a bit cooler on Wednesday, so only
expecting high temperatures to top out in the upper 80s to around
90F. On Wednesday afternoon, high-res model guidance depicts
another round of showers/storms along the sea breeze. So, rain
chances will generally be higher along and south of I-10 towards the
afternoon. Rain chances persist into late Wednesday night with some
model guidance hinting at another MCS potentially moving through the
area, but the timing and placement is off between members so it`d be
difficult to list specifics at the moment. Low temperatures on
Wednesday night will range from the low to upper 70s.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Persistent onshore flow will bring increasing temperatures & heat
indices from Thursday into next week. Abundant moisture and impulses
aloft will bring daily chances of showers/storms. A few stronger
storms could produce locally heavy rainfall through the early weekend,
mainly in areas north of I-10.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently pushing
through Southeast TX with strong winds upwards of 50 kts, heavy
rainfall leading to brief IFR/MVFR conditions, and hail. The
storms will continue pushing from north to south and should be off
of the coast by 00Z. An additional round of showers/storms is
expected to push in from the west overnight generally around 08Z
through 14Z. These appear that they will be less robust than the
ongoing convection. MVFR ceilings are expected during that time
period with VFR conditions returning by Wednesday afternoon.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 426 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist into next
week with seas around 3 to 5ft. Small craft will need to exercise
caution at times, especially during the overnight hours as wind
gusts to near 20kt. The chances for showers and thunderstorms return
Wednesday and persist through the weekend, but highest coverage of
the storms will be inland. The persistent onshore flow will also
lead to a high risk of strong rip currents through the weekend.

Fowler/03

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 426 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

There are currently three River Flood Warnings in effect: two along
the Trinity River and one on the Navasota River. The Trinity River
at Liberty is currently in moderate flood stage through Tuesday
night, then drops out of minor flood stage later this week. The
Trinity River at Moss Bluff will remain in minor flood stage until
further notice. The Navasota River at Normangee has reached its
crest in minor flood stage and is forecast to drop below flood stage
later this week.

In addition to this, heavy rainfall today has led to street flooding
across Southeast TX especially along feeder roads and underpasses.
There will be a lull in rainfall at least through early Wednesday
morning, so the water will have some time to drain.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  87  73  87 /  30  60  30  50
Houston (IAH)  72  88  75  87 /  30  60  30  60
Galveston (GLS)  77  86  79  85 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03