286
FXUS64 KHGX 242029
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
329 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Radar imagery has blossomed with scattered light to moderate rain
and a few lightning strikes, coinciding with peak afternoon
heating and the interaction with a weak/stalled frontal boundary
extended over the region. Low to mid level instability, low level
moisture and surface convergence will be enough to spark
additional showers and storms through the evening hours. A mild
night with patchy fog and spotty showers is anticipated.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will weaken/wash out tonight.
However, a secondary and stronger front will move across SE TX by
Wednesday as the main mid/upper level trough moves through
Middle/Lower MS Valley. This FROPA will keep rain/storm chances
through early Wednesday evening. At the moment, the severe weather
risk is low. Wednesday`s highs will climb into the mid 90s. The
good news is that a drier airmass will bring dew points into the
upper 50s to upper 60s degF range Wednesday night into Thursday.
Therefore, a comfortable night is expected with lows in the 60s
and low 70s.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Closed low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will keep
northerly flow in place behind the cold front, allowing for cooler
and drier conditions through the end of the work week. This should
bring near-normal temperatures with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.
Lows will be in the the 60s inland to lower 70s along the coastline.
Isolated locations across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area could
see low drop below the 60 degree mark during this period. Moisture
and PVA wrapping around the closed low aloft could bring isolated
showers/storms across portions of the Piney Woods area on Friday
into the early weekend. Regardless, PWs largely under 1 inch will
keep rain chances low for much of the region.

Over the weekend, the aforementioned close low lifts north towards
the Tennessee/Ohio Valley. As it does, ridging slowly builds over
the Four Corners, with temperatures and moisture progged to rise
into the beginning of next week. Northerly flow regime aloft should
stiffen this warming trend, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid
90s next week. Lows should remain in the 60s inland to 70s near the
coast.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A weak frontal boundary, currently extending along and south of a
line from CLL to UTS, is developing scattered showers across some
terminals early this afternoon. With increasing instability
expected for this afternoon, have included VCTS or TS in TAFs,
most of them within a PROB30 or TEMPO group. Models keep
suggesting that the best window for TS will be late this afternoon
and evening as the boundary slowly moves through. Erratic wind
gusts can be expected with any storms. Winds will remain light,
transitioning to the WNW through the period. Overall, VFR
conditions are expected through most of the period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Light to moderate winds, low seas and isolated rain chances can
be expected through the end of the day. Onshore winds today will
shift to the northeast on Wednesday, with rain chances increasing
as a cold front pushes south towards the coastline. Caution flags
and Small Craft Advisories may be needed by early Thursday morning
as northerly winds approach 20 knots and seas rise to 4 to 6
feet. Winds and seas decrease through the end of the work week,
with predominantly offshore flow prevailing into the weekend.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  89  65  86 /  30  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  92  69  87 /  30  40  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  88  74  86 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03