030
FXUS64 KHGX 272053
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

 Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 10 PM tonight for portions
of SE Texas

 Heat Advisory in effect until 10 PM tonight for locations outside
of the Excessive Heat Warning

 Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight and Tuesday for much of
SE Texas

There`s going to be a few issues with the short-term forecast for SE
TX that will include heat, increasing POPs, the potential for severe
weather and lingering hazy conditions (most likely from smoke making
its way in from the south across the Gulf).

As per readings so far this afternoon, heat index values have ranged
from 103F-113F with a few more hours of daytime to go. The Excessive
Heat Warnings/Heat Advisories currently in place are going to remain
in place until later this evening. Please continue to be cautious as
we head into tonight...stay hydrated and keep limiting any strenuous
activity. Even if this is SE TX, our bodies have yet to become accl-
imated to this early season heat.

Additionally, for this evening, portions of the CWA will remain in a
Slight to Marginal Risk for severe weather (levels 2 and 1 out of 5).
The best chances for storms should be over our northern counties due
to the proximity of the stationary front over North TX and the track
of the various disturbances aloft. Still not a lot of confidence re-
garding development, but should it happen, the bulk of this activity
will be just north of the FA with some strays into our area. But not
expecting too much as the cap remains strong.

Heading into tomorrow, models are more consistent/insistent with the
idea of organized convection moving in from the west. As the dryline
shifts a bit more to the east, the starting line of storms should be
a bit closer to SE TX. So, with the NW/W flow aloft setting up, this
should be a better scenario for embedded disturbances. SPC does have
all of the northern half of the FA in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) with
a small part of the Brazos Valley in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5).
Wind and hail will be the main hazards with any storms that are able
to make it into SE Texas. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Key Messages:

 Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 10 PM tonight for portions
of SE Texas

 Heat Advisory in effect until 10 PM tonight for locations outside
of the Excessive Heat Warning

 Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight and Tuesday for much of
SE Texas

There`s going to be a few issues with the short-term forecast for SE
TX that will include heat, increasing POPs, the potential for severe
weather and lingering hazy conditions (most likely from smoke making
its way in from the south across the Gulf).

As per readings so far this afternoon, heat index values have ranged
from 103F-113F with a few more hours of daytime to go. The Excessive
Heat Warnings/Heat Advisories currently in place are going to remain
in place until later this evening. Please continue to be cautious as
we head into tonight...stay hydrated and keep limiting any strenuous
activity. Even if this is SE TX, our bodies have yet to become accl-
imated to this early season heat.

Additionally, for this evening, portions of the CWA will remain in a
Slight to Marginal Risk for severe weather (levels 2 and 1 out of 5).
The best chances for storms should be over our northern counties due
to the proximity of the stationary front over North TX and the track
of the various disturbances aloft. Still not a lot of confidence re-
garding development, but should it happen, the bulk of this activity
will be just north of the FA with some strays into our area. But not
expecting too much as the cap remains strong.

Heading into tomorrow, models are more consistent/insistent with the
idea of organized convection moving in from the west. As the dryline
shifts a bit more to the east, the starting line of storms should be
a bit closer to SE TX. So, with the NW/W flow aloft setting up, this
should be a better scenario for embedded disturbances. SPC does have
all of the northern half of the FA in a Slight Risk (level 2/5) with
a small part of the Brazos Valley in an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5).
Wind and hail will be the main hazards with any storms that are able
to make it into SE Texas. 41
The southward sagging mid/upper level ridge will allow for a series
of disturbances/impulses to moves across the area for much of this
forecast period. Timing and location are questionable this far out,
so rain chances originating off to our west and northwest and working
their way towards us (right now they are daily in the Wednesday through
Saturday time period) will likely need adjusting as the week progresses.
The end of the period (Sunday) looks drier as the ridge begins to build
back toward the area.

Generally looking at the higher rainfall totals the further north you
go, ranging from 1/4 to 1/2 inch in/around the Matagorda Bay area to
closer to 2 to 4 inches across parts of the Piney Woods and Brazos
Valley areas. Locally higher totals will be possible, especially for
locations that see repeated activity.

With the anticipated rain and clouds, looking at slightly cooler high
temperatures mainly in a mid/upper 80s to lower 90s range for Wednesday
through Saturday. For Sunday, getting a little warmer...highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures will be mainly in the low to
mid 70s with slightly higher values (closer to an upper 70s to around
80 range) in/around the Matagorda Bay area

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

MVFR ceilings are starting to lift, but visibility issues could per-
sist through the afternoon given the haze/smoke moving in from the S
(Gulf). Expect conditions to improve to VFR through the afternoon as
onshore winds slowly increase (4-9kts). Isolated storms remain poss-
ible late this afternoon/evening for our western areas, but there is
still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding timing. Otherwise, we are
going to see a return of MVFR CIG overnight with patchy fog possible
again into Tues morning. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Weaker winds and gradually lowering seas are expected through midweek.
Recreational mariners are urged to use extra caution for the remainder
of the day today considering the increased holiday traffic. During the
second half of the week, moderate to occasionally stronger southeast
winds and mainly 4 to 6 foot seas resume with a long fetch setting up
across the Gulf. Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast
late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Though chances are better inland,
we anticipate some disturbances passing through the remainder of the
week that are difficult to time days in advance.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  92  74  88 /  20  20  30  50
Houston (IAH)  78  93  77  88 /  20  10  20  50
Galveston (GLS)  79  87  80  85 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195-196-198-200-214-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ197-
     199-210>213-226-227.

     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$