638
FXUS64 KHGX 141704
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1204 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The short term will be dominated by surface high pressure and modest
ridging aloft. In other words, the short term weather is actually
quiet for once! Some communities may encounter fog this morning. Any
fog should lift by mid-morning, yielding to a mostly sunny and warm
day. The air will be drier, with afternoon dew points averaging in
the low/mid 60s. Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the 85
to 90 degree range. Inland temps fall into the 60s tonight (70s at
the coast). Couldn`t rule out patchy fog development by Wednesday
morning. Wednesday looks similar but with a little more mid/upper
ridging than Tuesday. Therefore, afternoon temperatures are forecast
to be a little hotter, averaging around 90 degrees for most inland
areas (~mid 80s near the coast). Wednesday night is expected to be
more humid and a tad warmer. There may even be a few showers after
midnight. These showers are a harbinger of the active weather to
come. But I will let the long term forecaster dwell on that topic.

Enjoy the calm while it lasts!

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Still looking for our next best chance of rain in the Thursday-Friday
time period as a series of disturbances move across the area in association
with the next upper level trough. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are anticipated along with possible strong/severe storms as moisture
levels rise and instability increases. We will need to keep an eye on
how the models handle this next system. The current forecast has the
highest rainfall totals from I-10 northward with the higher numbers the
further northward you go. These higher totals up north (approaching 2 to 4
inches with locally higher amounts possible) are across locations that
are already saturated, so we might end up needing another Flood Watch.
Once this system exits off to the east, a much drier forecast will cover
the area over the weekend and into the start of next week.

With expected rains/clouds in the area on Thursday and Friday, look
for high temperatures mainly in the 80s. With less clouds and no rain
over the weekend and into the start of next week, look for high temperatures
to warm from an upper 80s to low 90s range on Saturday to the lower
90s for a majority of inland locations on Monday. Morning lows in an
upper 60s to low 70s range are anticipated for much of this period.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through Wednesday afternoon.
There may still be some patchy fog late tonight into early
Wednesday morning impacting some low-lying terminals (CXO, LBX,
maybe SGR). But the fog tonight will not be as widespread or dense
as last night/this morning. Otherwise just expecting wind shifts
through the period with WNW winds this afternoon become more
northerly through the evening, then light/variable overnight
before eventually becoming SE on Wednesday.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Mainly light north to northwest winds and low seas can be expected today.
Winds will come back around to the south and southeast tonight and Wednesday,
and this onshore flow will gradually strengthen and persist until another
cold front moves off the coast at the end of the week. Caution flags
might be needed for the strengthening winds and building seas. Our next
chance of rain begins late Wednesday night and continues into the day
on Friday. A drier forecast can be expected over the weekend.

42

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas,
particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers. The
next rounds of heavy rain are expected on Thursday/Friday, so be
sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  64  89  68  84 /   0   0  20  70
Houston (IAH)  65  90  70  85 /   0   0  20  70
Galveston (GLS)  73  82  75  83 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Adams