Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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071 FXUS64 KHGX 091754 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1254 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 With onshore winds in place across SE TX, low-level moisture will be continuing to deepen today and tomorrow. PWs up to 2" are progged as the pattern persists. The zonal flow aloft could bring some weak dis- turbances in from the west this afternoon with mainly isolated cove- rage possible as we recover from the influence of the weekend ridging. As the mid/upper pattern becomes more N/NW by Mon, rain chances will be going up as a weak cold front accompanies these disturbances. For now, will keep POPs in the 20-40% range. Showers/storms should occur mainly during the daytime hours. As for temperatures, the SE winds and rain chances will help to keep highs today and tomorrow in the lower 90s. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s for most locations...around 80 at the immediate coast. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 With a more zonal midlevel flow regime in place by Tuesday, the approach of a fairly robust shortwave will have the potential to bring us our next round of widespread thunderstorm activity later on Tuesday. Global deterministic models continue to depict the southeastward propagation of a MCS through the area overnight on Tuesday into early Wednesday, though there continues to remain a degree of uncertainty as to exactly how this will play out given we are still outside the time domain of mesoscale models. Regardless, with abundant moisture availability and sufficient SB instability, we`ll continue to need to monitor this time period for the possibility of some stronger storms. Some additional diurnally driven activity is possible on Wednesday afternoon via the sea/bay breeze. The end of the week will be characterized by a light but persistent onshore flow, strong moisture availability, and chances for additional diurnally-driven showers/storms. As such, low but nonzero PoP values remain present in this morning`s forecast package. Winds remain fairly light with surface high pressure nearly overhead. Temperatures will generally remain in the mid 90s for the duration of the period, with values on the coast closer to 90. A building midlevel ridge may push a few locations to the upper 90s on Saturday. However, dew points near 70 should keep heat index values from reaching Advisory criteria. Overnight lows should continue to drop into the mid 70s. Cady && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR at all sites this afternoon. Cumulus field over SE Texas will persist for the rest of the day; however, CIGs should remain VFR. A few showers possible this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Aside from brief period of light patchy fog, should be quiet with VFR prevailing. Winds will be light out of the SE becoming variable Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Conditions remain relatively quiet through the duration of the forecast period with light onshore winds expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the weekend and through at least the end of next week. Rain chances return to the forecast beginning later today, with chances of shower and thunderstorm development through at least mid week. While a significant severe weather event is not expected, any locally stronger storms that develop could produce the occasional strong wind gust. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 75 91 74 / 10 10 20 10 Houston (IAH) 91 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 79 / 20 10 40 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Cady