Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
809 FXUS66 KHNX 141026 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 326 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. High temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley will hover between 95 and 100 degrees through Friday before a cooling trend brings temperatures closer to climatological averages for the weekend. Monday temperatures are forecast to be around 4 to 7 degrees below normal. 2. Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, will continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows along rivers and waterways. 3. Strong wind gusts will develop along the Mojave Desert slopes each late afternoon through overnight from Friday through Monday. Afternoon and evening breezes will develop across the San Joaquin Valley with locally gusty conditions near the passes of the West Side Mountains Friday through Monday. 4. The gusty winds coupled with low relative humidity will bring elevated fire weather concerns to the Kern County mountains and desert and the San Joaquin Valley Friday through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Zonal to slightly Northwest flow will continue through the weekend into early next week. The primary concern will be Kern County Desert and Mojave Slopes winds as the pattern will feature low pressure to the east and Pacific High pressure. This sets up the surface gradient featuring strong wind gusts. Today and Tonight the surface gradient is roughly 7-9 MB from Bakersfield to Vegas that supports strong wind gusts for the Mojave Slopes. The short term ensembles have 60 to 80 percent probability to exceed 55 mph during the late evening into the early morning hours. This lines up very well with the current highlights out for a high wind event. On the temperature side for today another above normal day across the region. The San Joaquin Valley PoE of 95 degrees ranges from 61 to 86 percent. Then the PoE of 100 degrees ranges from 6 to 36 percent. Saturday the pressure gradient continues with a 5-8 MB Bakersfield to Vegas line. This will have similar probabilities to make warning criteria as Friday nights event. The High Wind Watch seems to cover the threat well. Turning to temperatures the trend is downward. The PoE of 95 degrees is down to near 0 percent north of Fresno and 16 to 26 percent Fresno and south in the Valley. Even the PoE of 90 degrees ranges from 41 percent in the north to 81 percent in the south. Sunday and Monday a strong short wave in the upper flow moves across the Pacific Northwest lowering upper level heights over the Golden State. Temperatures are anticipated to fall below normal. The PoE of 90 degrees falls to 11 to 26 percent across the Valley. The PoE of 85 degrees is only 61 to 81 percent. The threat of more Mojave Slope wind products has continued elevated probabilities. Tuesday through next Friday expect a warming trend across the area as upper heights continue to rise even with general troughiness across the western CONUS. There is some hope for those that do not like it hot. The Cluster analysis does have some disagreement that could course correct from the extremes. However, with that said, NBM probabilities into next weekend of exceeding 110 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley range from 16 to 26 percent. Next weekend will have to be monitored for the possibilities of Excessive Heat in the region. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 06/13/2024 14:15 EXPIRES: 06/14/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ338. High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday night for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation/fire weather...Proton IDSS....AS weather.gov/hanford