Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
949 FXUS66 KHNX 251830 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1130 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Strong, gusty west winds are expected along the Mojave Desert slopes later this afternoon through early Sunday morning. 2. A warming trend occurs Sunday and Monday, and then temperatures hold through the remainder of the week around 5 degrees above normal. 3. Gusty westerly winds are expected Wednesday through Friday over the Mojave Slopes and Kern County Desert. && .DISCUSSION... A typical dry late Spring pattern continues throughout the NWS Hanford warning/forecast area. Satellite loops show the upper-level low and trough pushing eastward over NE Nevada, which is the feature that brought us breezy conditions and cooler temperatures the last couple of days. Today`s highs will be a few degrees below normal, and another round of gusty winds will develop later this afternoon into late tonight along the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern County. High resolution guidance (HRRR) and ensemble (HREF) shows high probabilities of gusts at least 45 mph (70 percent to near 100 percent chance) in these areas from late this afternoon until the early morning hours before dawn on Sunday. Mainly seasonably warm temperatures are in store for Sunday (for reference, Central Valley highs are mainly in the 80`s), and warmer than average temperatures return on Memorial Day. The upper-level ridge will build over the region during Sunday until Tuesday. Highs in the warmest SJ Valley locations will likely reach 90 degrees by that day; for example, the probability that a reading reaches to or below 90 degrees is only 20 percent or less. Forecast highs in the Kern County desert are a bit warmer but still mainly in the 90`s. Expect similar temperatures on Tuesday. Cloud buildups will at least occur in the afternoons over the Sierra Nevada, and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at times, including on Memorial Day and later. The latest NAM does show some embedded shortwaves passing over the ridge, and these features may be enough to provide the needed lift for isolated convection. A minor, perhaps barely noticeable, cooling trend occurs by midweek. Probabilities of highs at or below 90 degrees rise to about 40 to 50 percent for Wednesday and Thursday, per latest blended guidance. So, a reading of 90 degrees still has a good chance of occurring, at least in the San Joaquin Valley. Seasonably warm and mainly dry weather, except for isolated mountain thunderstorms at times, will persist for much of next week and through next Saturday, including the beginning of June. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hours. Only issue will be surface winds with gusts around 40 to 50 kts over the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern County from 00Z-10Z on Sunday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338. && $$ BSO/JEB weather.gov/hanford