814
FXUS64 KHUN 150741
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
241 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Unseasonably hot/dry conditions will continue across the mid TN
Valley today, as a strong upper ridge pattern out of the Plains
states builds eastward into the SE region. A weak frontal boundary
located north of the area may also drift southward later today,
but this feature is expected to have little impact on the sensible
wx. Otherwise, high pressure layered across the mid/NE Atlantic
states will help usher warmer air into the area out of the east.
This combined with the approach of the upper ridge will translate
into afternoon highs once again in the lower/mid 90s. With dew pts
trending in the upper 60s/near 70F, max heat indices later today
may reach the 100F mark in parts of NW/north central AL.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The stagnant frontal boundary will then diminish tonight/into Sun,
as a return flow pattern develops over much of the region. High
pressure becoming layered over more of the Atlantic Basin will
help usher moisture back into the area, along with a continuation
of unseasonably warmer air. The upper ridge pattern will also
drift more to the east for the second half of the weekend period,
thereby helping to maintain unseasonably hot temps. Lows tonight
look to fall into the lower 70s/near 70F, before temps rebound
more into the mid/perhaps upper 90s later in the day Sun. With
dew pts also around the 70F mark, max heat indices look to range
between 100-105F for most spots, although the coverage of 105F
heat indices Sun afternoon does not warrant a Heat Advisory at
this time. With the increase in moisture coupled with SBCAPE
values around 2-3K J/kg, a low end chc for showers/tstms (20%)
also looks to develop during the afternoon hrs Sun.

The upper ridge pattern will then become more centered across the
southern Atlantic states Mon, allowing more of an active southerly
flow pattern aloft to develop. With the sfc high to the east
continuing to usher Gulf moisture back into the area, a low chc
for showers/tstms (20-30%) will continue for the afternoon/early
evening hrs Mon. While overall deep layer shear will be minimal
both Sun/Mon, the pulse like naure of any convection may allow for
a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds/brief heavy rainfall.
Overnight lows both Sun/Mon nights look to remain in the lower
70s/near 70F, while afternoon highs Mon trend more in the lower
90s/near 90F, given the slight increase in cloud cover/rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Strong upper level high pressure on Tuesday should be situated over
the Mid Atlantic with maximum heights around 594 decameters. It will
build somewhat more to the NE, and amplify to near 600 decameters
over the New York City region Wednesday, then weaken somewhat and
build more southward in the latter portion of next week. Despite
the presence of the upper ridge, deep moisture from the Gulf
surging inland will keep more clouds than sun in the forecast on
Tue/Wed. This moisture with precipitable water amounts nearing 2
inches across parts of NW Alabama will keep lower end chances of
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Despite the clouds and rain
chances, rather warm and muggy conditions are forecast with highs
rising to around 90, and heat index values into the mid/upper 90s.

The moisture surge should be suppressed more to our west late
Wednesday into Thursday, thus back to dry conditions for the rest of
the abbreviated work week. High temps on Juneteenth/Wednesday will
warm into the lower 90s, and mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Heat index
values on Wed should range in the lower 90s, and mid 90s for Thu/Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Other than a dry and weak frontal boundary dropping into the area
early Sat morning, high pressure to the east should help maintain
VFR conds thru the TAF period. Light/var winds are also expected
thru the afternoon/evening hrs Sat.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...09