Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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720 FXUS64 KHUN 121732 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A shortwave trough was moving east through AL this afternoon, producing nothing more than mid and high clouds with it. With dew points in the 50s to around 60, another comfortable afternoon was in progress as well. For tonight, the high clouds will shift southeast with the exiting trough. Patchy valley fog will be possible late tonight. Morning lows will dip easily into the lower 60s for most areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A 5h ridge over the Desert Southwest is still modeled consistently to migrate into the Gulf South and TN valley region through Saturday. This will mean an incremental rise in temperatures each day. Low level flow will still remain light and variable for the most part during this period. Thus, not expecting the deep Gulf moisture layer nearer the coast to reach the area before Saturday. However, dew points will experience a slow uptick through the period back into the 60s. For temperatures, expect highs to increase from the upper 80s to around 90 Thursday, into the lower 90s Friday, and a few middle 90s Saturday. A strong capping inversion will prevent any pulse convection from developing at this point. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The long term forecast poses the question when will we see rain and heat relief? Unfortunately the answer remains somewhat uncertain. By Sunday night there will likely be ongoing convection in the southern Gulf associated with a Gulf low somewhere near the Yucatan. Models diverge on how far north both the Gulf moisture and eventual rain associated with this feature will make it. The GFS favors weakening ridging and a more northward track of gulf moisture bringing us rain and clouds for the start of the work week. The Euro favors stronger ridging suppressing all rain chances and yielding additional days in the high 90s. For this issuance, kept low rain chances in through the long term with cloudy conditions limiting temps to the low 90s. As this period moves closer in time, guidance will become more clear on when heat relief and rain will arrive. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...17