381
FXUS64 KHUN 292306
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
606 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A cold front is currently moving southeast into northern Alabama.
This front should be southeast of the Tennessee River mid the mid
afternoon hours. However, the western edge of this front may hang
up near or just south of northwestern Alabama this evening, as the
rest of the front continues to push southeast. Northerly winds
should drop off later this evening and become fairly light, except
in the higher elevations. Towards daybreak surface winds in
several models shift and become more easterly. This will likely
allow for the driest air to affect locations, east of the I-65
corridor, especially in sheltered valley locations. Thus, kept
lows in the lower 50s in those shelter valley locations east of
the I-65 corridor. Further west, kept lows in the 55 to 60 degree
range. No fog is expected with drier air moving into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Strong upper level ridging builds over the area through Thursday,
as a surface high over the Ohio Valley dominates the weather over
the eastern CONUS.

Models do show a disturbance moving from Lousiana into SW
Mississippi Thursday morning. However, most models have this
feature falling apart as it runs into moves further ESE. Do
believe locations SW of a line from near Cullman, AL to the Quad
Cities area will see some cloud cover impacting them as this
occurs, but not precipitation is expected. These clouds will
likely to help keep temperatures a tad cooler. It will still be
fairly cool even further northeast where clouds will not be as
prevalent. Highs on Thursday look to make it into the mid 70s to
lower 80s in most locations.

Upper level ridging briefly amplifies over the area Thursday night
into Friday afternoon. This should keep precipitation associated
with a stronger upper level trough axis over Mississippi through
then. Lows Thursday night should be similar. Highs on Friday
should warm up in response to the building ridging. Highs should
climb to between 81 and 86 degrees.

Friday night forcing from the eastern edge of the upper level
trough axis moves far enough east that isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms could impact portions of northern
Alabama. Shear and instability look too weak for anything but run
of the mill thunderstorm activity producing gusty winds, frequent
lighting, and heavy downpours.

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms should increase in
coverage Saturday into Saturday night, as the trough axis swings
through the Ohio Valley and a trailing trough axis produces this
activity over the area. Again, shear is very weak, but instability
may be a bit higher. Still, no severe storms are expected as this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

This trailing trough axis lingers over the area into early next
week, producing daily chances of additional shower and
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period
with light winds and a mostly clear sky.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP.24