Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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245 FXUS64 KHUN 312253 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 553 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A weak area of low pressure was moving to the NE over the eastern Red River Valley of OK/TX, and bringing an increase in clouds to the area. Despite the thickening clouds, area temperatures have warmed into the low/mid 80s, with SE winds of 5-15 mph. Showers preceding this system were beginning to overspread the MS/AL border mainly south of I-22. So far, lightning activity with these approaching showers was confined south of the I-20 corridor. Thoughts from previous forecast guidance remain similar, bringing higher rain chances to the area tonight. Output from the various models were in reasonable agreement with one another with increasing rain chances from west to east in the overnight. Although most of the precipitation will be showers, enough lift and modest shear could result in thunderstorms mixed in. Lows tonight should cool into the low/mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 For the weekend and early next week, an unsettled pattern is forecast with chances for showers and thunderstorms in the picture. The ARW/FV3 and longer term models all indicated numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms impacting the area on Saturday. With plenty of cloud cover and high rain chances, temperatures will trend cooler than today. Highs Sat should only warm in to the mid/upper 70s. The NBM`s low/mid 70s looked too cool so boosted them up a few degrees. The heaviest showers move more to the east Sat night with lesser rain chances expected Sunday. Rainfall totals over the area should range from 1/2" east to over 1.5" west. The higher amounts of rain over our western areas could run-off, resulting in a risk of flooding and flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk for our western 2/3s of our area on Sat, main due to runoff from Fri night into Saturday morning rain totals. With more sun peeking through, high temperatures to start the new week should rise into the lower 80s. Convection chances appear to become more on a diurnal trend, with higher odds Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A shortwave across the TN Valley will start off the unsettled pattern that will persist through mid week. An upper level trough in the Northern Plains will develop a sfc low and associated cold front on Tuesday. Another shortwave will slide out ahead of this system to keep low chance (20-30%) of showers and storms in the forecast through Tuesday. The sfc low will remain up in the Great Lakes or just north of there, the cold front will push southeast into the region on Wednesday. We will see an uptick in the coverage of showers and storms (30-50%) before the front pushes through on Thursday. Not expecting severe storms at this time, but will monitor trends as we get closer to the event. Ahead of the front, daytime highs will start off in the lower 80s and climb to encroach 90 degrees by Wednesday with lows around 70 degrees. Behind the front, temps will only slightly improve. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A narrow line of showers continues to develop well southwest of the KMSL terminal at this hour. Expect this activity to mainly move NNW and not affect the terminal through 02Z. However, kept a PROB30 group in in case this activity expands far enough eastward during that period. Expect the bulk of rain and thunderstorms to move northeast into the KMSL terminal closer to 08Z and the KHSV terminal around 09Z, expect CIGS to drop to MVFR or lower around that timeframe. This should be a persistent and widespread area of RA and -TSRA. Southeast winds around 10 knots should increase early this evening and especially after midnight (sustained around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots). A timeframe of 10Z to 14Z at the KMSL terminal and 12Z to 16Z was highlighted for heavier -TSRA for now. During this period, some IFR or lower CIGS or VSBYS could occur. Expect conditions to improve some after these tempo groups, when VSBYS or CIGS could become predominantly MVFR again. && is period, some IFR or lower CIGS or VSBYS could occur. .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...KTW