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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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912 FXUS64 KHUN 260246 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 946 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A subtle mid-level vort max (located across the high Plains of western SD/NE earlier this evening) will progress southeastward into northwestern MO overnight in the gradient flow between a northern stream trough shifting east-southeastward along the U.S.-Canadian border and a subtropical high centered across NM. This feature and a related frontal wave at the surface will contribute to multiple clusters of thunderstorms that will spread generally east-southeastward from the Mid-MO Valley into the Lower OH-Valley, with most high-resolution model guidance suggesting that a large MCS will evolve out of this activity across southern IA/northern MO later this evening before dropping south- southeastward early Wednesday morning. Although our entire CWFA will likely remain dry through 12Z Wednesday, there are indications that a smaller MCS may develop out of convection currently across southeastern MO and track in the same general direction, perhaps approaching northwest AL by sunrise. A few showers and thunderstorms may also develop shortly before sunrise across northern MS/southwestern TN within a regime of strengthening SW low-level flow preceding the MCS, and for this reason we have included a very low (15-20%) POP along the AL-MS border during the early morning hours. Otherwise, the combination of slightly higher dewpoints (ranging from the l-m 60s SE to m-u 60s NW) and an increasing coverage of high-level debris clouds will support warmer low temps ranging from the u60s (E) to m70s (W). && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A weakness in the ridge takes place Wednesday as a short wave trough dives to the southeast across the lower Midwest and into the TN Valley. Timing on this appears to be after 18z for western portions of the area, to around 00z Thursday for the lower Appalachians. There does exist the possibility of isolated strong to severe storms along the disturbance. Steeper lapse rates, along with moderate CAPE values may help with promoting stronger storms. Most storms should remain linear as bulk shear values are forecast to be low-moderate. Following this short wave, the ridge rebuilds from the west on Thursday. Highs on Thursday and Friday should be lower than on Wednesday, but still warm, around the low 90s. Dewpoints do remain higher, closer to 70-75. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 From Friday into the weekend, southerly flow will redevelop in low levels, elevating dew points into the lower to perhaps middle 70s. With highs staying in the lower to middle 90s, heat index values may reach 105+ in some areas, mainly central and west both days. The good news is, pulse afternoon convection is expected to develop Saturday afternoon, and then another cold front undercuts the 5h ridge across the region and arrives sometime Sunday depending on the model solution. So, we may get breaks in the heat at times both days due to thunderstorms. However, the front will be weakening and will likely lift back north by late Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals this evening and overnight, with a notable increase in the coverage of high-lvl convective debris clouds (originating from multiple clusters of TSRA spreading east-southeastward from the Mid-MO Valley into the Lower-OH Valley) anticipated during the early morning hours. Although this will reduce the risk for nocturnal fog development, some patchy BR/FG will still be possible btwn 8-13Z (but near large bodies of water). Shortly after 12Z, we expect to see an even greater increase in the coverage of mid/high-lvl clouds as a developing MCS across southeastern MO begins to drop southward thru the Mid-South region. Present indications are that the eastern edge of this MCS may clip the western portion of our CWFA (where moisture/instability will be greatest) tomorrow aftn, with PROB30 groups for TSRA included at MSL/20-24Z and HSV/22-24Z. Lgt NW sfc flow will back to SW later this evening, with prevailing speeds increasing to arnd 10 kts tomorrow morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...Serre LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...70/DD