Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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100 FXUS64 KHUN 211848 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 148 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Dry conditions are expected overnight as ridge continues to drift southwestward across the local area. Increasing moisture and passing high cloud cover will moderate low temps to within a 2-3 degrees of daily record high min temperatures for Saturday morning. Current lows are forecast to only drop into the upper 60s to the east and low/mid 70s for the remainder of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Current high min records stand at 75 (2002) for Muscle Shoals and 76 (2010) for Huntsville. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Ridge will continue to shift westward, centering over Texas by late Saturday into Sunday. This will leave the local area on the eastern extent of the ridge under increasing mid-level northwesterly flow. With the ridge still fairly strong over the area on Saturday, we are expecting a continuation in the dry, warm weather. Highs will top out in the low/mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s during the day leaving heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100. Temps continue to warm into Sunday with heat indices in the 100-105 degrees range for many areas. As ridge weakens on Sunday, we will open the door to the influence of passing shortwave activity. Chances for showers and storms will increase late on Sunday as a shortwave trough passes to the northeast across the OH River Valley with best timing being overnight Sunday into Monday. Chances for precipitation top out between 30-40 percent during that time. The severe threat with this activity currently looks low. Precautions should be taken this weekend to avoid heat-related illness including drinking plenty of water, wearing loose-fitting and light-colored clothing, and avoiding activity during the peak heating hours of the day (10 AM to 5 PM). Take frequent breaks in the shade if you do need to be outside during the heat of the day. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A more unsettled pattern appears will return, as a warm upper ridge moves towards the Southern High Plains, and upper troughing amplifies across the NE CONUS. This shift in the upper level flow pattern and a return of more moisture will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms, and hopefully help alleviate near drought conditions developing over this region. But hot and humid conditions will continue despite rain chances early next week. Going with the NBM (which has been underplaying high temperatures as of late), highs on Monday should rise into the mid/upper 90s. Lower 70s dewpoints and this warmth will produce heat index readings from the mid 90s to 107 degrees. The higher end of this was over parts of western Lauderdale and northern Colbert counties, and southern Madison, Limestone and NE Morgan and NW Marshall counties. A SW flow and strong early summer solar input will make for an even warmer day Tue with highs in the mid/upper 90s, and a similar area being impacted by heat index values above 105 degrees. Some areas may breach the triple digit mark on Tuesday afternoon. Heat Advisories may be needed should this trend continue in future forecasts. This heat and moisture return brings chances of showers and thunderstorms on Mon/Tue, mainly in the afternoon coinciding with the most unstable time of day. Even deeper moisture arriving Wednesday with precipitable water amounts rising into the 1.5" to 2" range, will bring moderate to high (40-60%) rain chances Wed/Wed night. A cold front approaching from the north will help enhance rain chances, with some of the rain locally heavy during Wed. High precipitable water amounts sometimes result in electrically active storms as well. With more clouds and better rain chances, high temps for the midweek and Thursday should trend into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures next week will range mainly in the low/mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions expected at KHSV and KMSL through the TAF period. Winds around 5 kts from the east this afternoon, before becoming more light and variable by later this evening. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KG SHORT TERM....KG LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...Serre