161
FXUS64 KHUN 230009
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
709 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Warm moist conditions will continue through the afternoon with
fair weather cumulus developing over nearly the whole area. The
feature of interest will be a cold front draped just NW of us
triggering severe storms in AR/MS/TN. This boundary will continue
to propagated generally southeast through the duration of the near
term. The concern currently is the fact that storms have fired up
slightly earlier and slightly further east than models have
indicated. An earlier arrival of severe storms mean a better
thermodynamic profile for storms to take advantage of. As storms
enter NW AL CAMS indicate they will have 2000+ J/KG of CAPE to
work with. With sufficient shear and 7 C/KM + lapse rates in
place, storms that enter the area before sunset will pose a threat
for hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning. Best chances
and highest confidence in seeing strong to severe storms is in NW
AL and our TN counties.

The front will continue to move east after sunset which will
support a gradual decrease in severe storm potential both through
the night and as storms move east. Showers and generally
thunderstorms will likely remain through the night as the front
takes its sweet time traversing the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Thursday morning we will be greeted again by the lingering front
promoting more widespread showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder across the area. Rain and thunder chances will decrease
through mid day as the front moves on. Chances for storms will
then transition to being driven by day time heating. If we can
clear out and heat up, strong to severe storms will be again
possible Thursday afternoon. Beyond Thursday afternoon, several
shortwaves will ripple NE through the area and promote high
chances for rain overnight on Thursday and through the day on
Friday. This will be mostly rinse and repeat into Saturday as
rain and storm chances again pick back up in the afternoon.

Each day storms will pose a threat for hail, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning. Those with outdoor activities this weekend
will need to remain vigilant. Aside from storm chances, our temps
will remain in the mid to high 80s making for very muggy
conditions during the dry slots of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

No big changes made to the extended portion. A powerful system moving
from the south/central Plains to the southern Great Lakes will keep
chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the Tennessee
Valley this weekend into Tuesday. More numerous, and possibly strong
to severe storms look more probable Sunday into Memorial Day. These
will be preceding, and possibly accompanying a cold front moving
across the area Monday. Dry weather and slightly cooler conditions
return late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Previous discussion...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A more vigorous shortwave will pivot from the central/southern
Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Sunday, bringing
widespread convection to portions of the Mid South and lower Ohio
Valley -- including the potential for a regional outbreak of
severe weather over those regions. Closer to home here in the
Tennessee Valley, a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will
also exist. Guidance hints at an initial wave of prefrontal
convection during the morning hours on Sunday, followed by an
additional round during the evening hours (into portions of the
overnight hours) directly along the cold front has it pushes
through the area. This second round would be more likely to pose a
threat for severe weather given the potential storm environment in
place. However, it is too early to get too specific on timing
given uncertainties in the evolution of this system and what
exactly the storm environment would support. Still this bears
close watching in the coming days, especially given that it will
occur during the busy Memorial Holiday weekend. Additional chances
for showers and storms will exist Monday (40-60%) and Tuesday
(20-30%) before ridging helps to dry us out by the middle of next
week. By Tuesday, guidance favors a subtle air mass chance as
drier air works its way in and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
will be common.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Convection which initiated earlier today in the vicinity of a
subtle low-level convergence axis (positioned to the immediate N/W
of the local area) will continue to spread northeastward and away
from the terminals early this evening. However, bkn-ovc layers of
As/Cs debris clouds will remain in place across the region for
much of the evening/early morning period. Models suggest that
thunderstorm coverage may begin to increase once again, perhaps as
early as 8-10Z, as a convectively-induced vort max (originating
from storms currently in progress from southern AR into north-
central TX) begins to spread east-northeastward and interact with
the stalled sfc boundary to our NW. Although timing may need to be
adjusted, we have included PROB30 groups at both airports btwn
10-15Z to account for this scenario. In the wake of any early
morning storms, overcast mid-level clouds will likely keep the
local airmass somewhat stabilized for the remainder of the period,
with only partial clearing expected after 20Z. Sfc winds will
remain from the SSE at night and SSW during the day, with
prevailing speeds of 5-10 kts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM...RAD
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...70/DD