Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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924 FXUS64 KHUN 271513 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1013 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 1013 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 We have one last day of unsettled weather on tap. An upper-level trough is allowing for some extra forcing for storms to develop today. This along with some diurnal heating should allow for scattered storms to build today. Coverage is forecast to be higher in SW counties to the HSV metro given model trends. CAPE should be moderate, with values closer to 1000-2000 J/kg. With some lingering cloud cover, this may limit some activity from being more widespread this afternoon. With this, highs should stay primarily in the mid to upper-80s, under mostly cloudy skies for most of the day. Despite the "cooler" temperatures, it will still be humid, with dewpoints into the mid-70s. Despite any potential locally gusty winds from storms, winds should primarily come from the ENE at around 5-10 mph. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The boundary will be south of us by tonight, but light east- southeast flow may tend to keep some low cloud potential tonight, along with patchy fog. The moist low levels will aid in afternoon shower or thunderstorm development both Friday and into Saturday, especially in our southeast counties. The greater chance will be Saturday as the remnant vorticity lobe now dropping south eventually gets carried east-northeast. Temperatures will warm back into the lower 90s on Saturday. Heat index values may get close to 105 in northwest AL, but most areas further east will stay below 100. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Sunday will bring a greater excessive heat risk, with temperatures warming a few more degrees with the building 8-5h heat dome across the southern U.S. However, a cold front will be undercutting the ridge on Sunday across the central Plains into the TN valley, will also bring our PoPs up above 50% for all areas, especially by midday into the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the main hazards. As an upper trough drops into the northeast and mid Atlantic early next week, the 5h ridge will amplify and shift further east into the Gulf and Mid South regions. We will get some relief from the muggy conditions Monday into Tuesday before southerly flow redevelops by the middle of next week and brings sultry air back north along with highs back in the middle to upper 90s. Thus, excessive heat risk will increase once again. However, there is also some indication that the westerlies at 5h may flatten the upper high a bit by the middle of next week, including Independence Day, which may bring another boundary and potential MCS clusters further south into Mid South and TN valley. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 426 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Ceilings will vary at times this morning, but be predominantly in the 015-025agl range (MVFR). A few patches of ceilings below 005agl (LIFR) and even some FG with visibility of 1/2SM or less may occur as well until 13Z. Scattered -SHRA will become more numerous this morning, with a few TSRA not ruled out. However, have left TSRA out of the KMSL and KHSV TAFs for now due to low probability. Ceilings are expected to lift above 030agl (VFR) by ~20Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Serre SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17