658
FXUS64 KHUN 201902
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
202 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Mostly dry and warm conditions continue across the Tennessee
Valley with high pressure centered just to our east. Current
satellite and radar shows a few isolated showers west of I-65
where better sfc heating exists and diurnal convection has
been achieved. Did add a low chance (10-20%) for showers/storms
through the remainder of peak heating hours and will continue to
monitor trends in case additional adjustments are needed. With the
drier air in place overnight, less of a chance for dense fog
tonight aside from the usual fog prone valleys and large
agricultural areas. Do not foresee needing a Dense Fog Advisory
tonight. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies with light southerly
winds and lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Dry weather will continue through much of the short term period as
high pressure to our east keeps lower humidity in place while also
reinforcing southerly flow as upper ridging builds to our west.
Daily highs will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s through
Thursday, while overnight lows fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Will definitely feel like summer and most locations will likely
reach 90 degrees for the first time this year either Tuesday or
Wednesday. A slow moving cold front will slowly approach the area
on Thursday, and will result in lower-end chances (20-40%) for
showers/storms (favoring northwest Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee) during the afternoon. Trends favor most of the area
remaining dry through Thursday afternoon, with highs once again in
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

A mid/upper shortwave pivoting from the Ozarks into the Mid SOuth
will finally push the aforementioned front into portions of the
Tennessee Valley by late Thursday night into Friday and
subsequently bring medium to high (40-70%) chance for showers and
storms to the area. General view of the storm environment would
favor plenty of CAPE with sufficient shear to support at least a
few organized strong storms, with gusty winds and hail (along with
locally heavy downpours) being the main threats on Friday. We`ll
remain in a fairly active pattern through most of the upcoming
Memorial Day holiday weekend, with zonal low aloft allowing for
additional shortwaves to traverse the region. Subsequently,
medium chances (40-60%)for showers/storms will be present in the
forecast both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with scattered
mid to high level clouds this afternoon. A few isolated showers
will be possible primarily near KMSL, but confidence in rain
affecting the terminal is too low to include in the TAF at this
time. Light SSE winds will prevail through tomorrow morning,
veering more to the S/SSW by 18z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...25