896
FXUS64 KHUN 270209
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
909 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 909 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Outflow-driven storms have moved northeast and out of our County
Warning Area for this evening, however, some light showers remain
throughout portions of northwestern AL and southern middle TN. A
low-medium chance (20-50%) of redevelopment is possible
overnight. Any showers that do develop will have a low (20%)
chance of producing lightning as instability has decreased with
the loss of daytime heating.

Otherwise, low temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper
60s to lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies. There is a very low
chance of partial clearing of cloud cover overnight in some
locations. If this occurs, fog formation is likely. Outside of
this, low clouds will cause fog-like conditions in higher
elevations and subsequent hazardous driving conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the duration of
the short term forecast. Mid level ridging will build in from the
west through the short term reinforcing the presence of mid level dry
air. At the surface, the return of southerly flow will advect in
higher dew points from the Gulf. With a warm moist environment in
place, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon. With no appreciable shear present, no organized severe
weather is expected. Rather, storms will likely mirror typical
pop up summer convection with some storms having a low chance of
becoming strong to severe. That being said, any storms that do
form will pose a threat for damaging winds and frequent lightning
each afternoon. Given the scattered coverage of storms expected,
those with outdoor plans this weekend will need to closely monitor
weather condition.

Aside from rain and storm chances, heat will unfortunately remain a
threat through the weekend as well. Both temperatures and dew points
will gradually increase through the duration of the short term
forecast yielding to a gradual increase in heat index values. The
current forecast includes heat index values on Saturday afternoon
exceeding heat advisory criteria (105F+) west of I-65. If current
forecast trends continue, a heat advisory will likely be needed for
at least a portion of the CWA for Saturday and potentially Sunday.
Regardless of the exact temperatures or presence of a heat advisory,
it is going to be hot for everyone. Make sure to practice proper sun
and heat safety through the weekend especially for those partaking in
outdoor activities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The general upper level ridge pattern remains unchanged through
the long term forecast period. As a result, hot and humid
conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Expect afternoon
temperatures to rise into the mid 90s both Sunday and Monday, and
the upper 90s on Tuesday. The good news is that daily diurnal
thunderstorms are expected. This should help limit how hot we get
each afternoon. Maximum heat index values once again will be in
the upper 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Vicinity showers are forecast to continue at KMSL and KHSV tonight
with VFR conditions prevailing. However, low chances of LIFR to
IFR conditions are possible overnight into Thursday morning during
periods of showers due to lowered clouds and decreased
visibilities. VFR conditions are forecast to return Thursday
afternoon to KMSL with MVFR conditions lingering at KHSV.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...HC