752
FXUS63 KICT 231117
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
617 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms possible today through tonight.

- A higher-end severe weather setup is possible for Saturday
  afternoon-night

- Dry Monday and Tuesday.

- Potential for increasing thunderstorm chances mid-late next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

TODAY--THIS EVENING...Increasing warm advection and moisture
transport amidst gradually increasing large scale ascent from the
west could support a few hit-or-miss thunderstorms today (as early
as mid-morning). If a few storms can manage to develop, initial
activity would be "elevated" rooted above the boundary layer, with
the strongest activity posing a risk of isolated large hail given
the instability/shear combination. As the afternoon progresses,
these elevated storm chances should become more surface-based with
daytime heating. Additional isolated surface-based storms could
develop in the vicinity of a dryline late this afternoon and evening
over western Kansas, possibly reaching locations along/west of I-135
during the evening. All of these afternoon-evening isolated storm
chances could pose a risk for large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes. The tornado threat will be focused during the evening,
coincident with an increasing low-level jet. All-in-all...weak upper
forcing should keep any activity through this evening fairly
isolated, so not everyone will see a storm.

LATER THIS EVENING--EARLY FRIDAY...A linear complex or two of
thunderstorms is expected to sweep east-southeast across Nebraska
and Iowa, as a strong cold intersects the dryline and surges in from
the northwest. While the greatest chances should remain mostly north
of the forecast area given stronger capping over the southern half
of Kansas, the strong linear forcing should support at least
scattered modest chances across central, south-central, and
southeast Kansas. The more linear storm mode will support isolated
pockets of damaging winds, with again more widespread chances over
northern Kansas and Nebraska. All activity will exit southeast
Kansas to the east by mid-morning Friday.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...The potential for a more synoptically
evident severe weather episode could take shape somewhere across the
Central and especially Southern Plains, as approaching shortwave
energy sharpens a dryline across the High Plains, amidst increasing
moisture/instability. Anomalous 500-250mb flow per the NAEFS
supports long cyclonically looping hodographs, supportive of
supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. However, there
remains some decent forecast uncertainty, especially surrounding
quality moisture return. Early Saturday will feature a cool, dry,
and stable post-frontal airmass. Strengthening deep southerly flow
should return rich/quality moisture rapidly northward through the
day. Consequently, because of this "just in time" moisture return,
low clouds may tend to encompass a good part of Kansas through the
day, limiting heating and associated surface-based destabilization.
This scenario would keep the greatest threat for higher-end severe
weather further south across Oklahoma. Stay tuned as we continue to
refine forecast details.

LATE SUNDAY--EARLY MONDAY...A fleet-footed potent shortwave and
associated cold front could spell additional shower/thunderstorm
chances late weekend into early Monday. This is especially portrayed
by the GFS, with little to no support by the ECMWF and Canadian. For
now will continue 20-30 PoPs until model agreement increases.

MONDAY--TUESDAY...Dry northwest flow should support dry and pleasant
weather early next week, with lower dewpoints and seasonable
temperatures.

WEDNESDAY--FRIDAY...Deterministic and ensemble consensus turns the
mid-upper flow more zonal by mid next week, supporting increasing
moisture/instability and associated thunderstorm chances. Stay tuned
as forecast details continue to be refined over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Low level moisture return within south to southeasterly flow is
expected to promote spread of MVFR cigs across southern Kansas
this morning. Elevated showers could also develop in the late
morning to early afternoon across central Kansas in the
warm/moist advection regime. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds
will develop this afternoon and evening. There will be a
conditional chance for showers and storms late in the day and
into tonight across central Kansas and south central Kansas
ahead of a dry-line and cold front.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...KED