332
FXUS63 KICT 300846
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
346 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More widespread storm chances today and Friday. Strong to
marginally severe storms are possible.

- Periodic rain low rain chances Saturday night through Tuesday
night.

- Near to slightly below average temperatures for today and Friday,
then a gradual warming trend starts this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Today... A large cluster of thunderstorms is currently impacting
portions of western Kansas, and is gradually moving eastward early
this morning. A more organized MCS appears to be developing within
this larger cluster of storms closer to the KS/CO state line with
another loose concentration of storms is developing further east in
the central/south-central Kansas vicinity. It appears there may be
some kind of MCV somewhere in this activity along with a relatively
decent LLJ is providing enough forcing to sustain these storms as
they slowly progress eastward (despite copious amounts of
inhibition). The environment is a bit more hostile further east, so
any strong or marginally severe storms should weaken prior to
getting into the forecast area. Still though, widespread showers and
storms appear at least somewhat likely, especially along and west of
I-135 through the morning hours. Unfortunately, details become a bit
fuzzier this afternoon. After this morning`s storms, coverage could
be a bit spotty for much of the day. Meanwhile, more robust and
widespread convection should develop across the High Plains and
start progressing eastward. There will be some questions regarding
instability across the region, especially north of US-54, so storms
moving off of the High Plains may be primarily focused across
southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma this evening through the
overnight hours. In general, most storms will be limited by weak
shear, but a strong to marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out,
especially this afternoon through the early nighttime hours. The
main concerns are 50 to 60 mph winds and perhaps up to dime sized
hail with stronger storms.

Friday through the beginning of next week... Left over activity may
continue to fester across the area Friday morning, and additional
development may be possible in the afternoon primarily along and
east of the Kansas. Storm chances will diminish from west to east
Friday night into early Saturday. In general, chances of storms have
decreased a bit during the day on Saturday, but periodic low storm
chances should resume Saturday night and last through Tuesday night.
A warming trend is still anticipated to commence this weekend.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to return to the mid to upper
80s, which is around average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Main forecast concern will be storm chances through the next 24
hours.

Storms developed across eastern CO/far western KS Wed evening
and are continuing to track east. This activity will continue
this trend through the overnight hours but confidence remains
low on what the coverage will look like in several hours. So for
now will just mention VCTS at KRSl-KGBD and continue to monitor
trends. Wouldn`t be shocked if thunder is added to remaining
sites once confidence starts to increase on the track of current
storms. The same setup is expected for this afternoon and
evening with storms once again expected to develop over the High
Plains and track east through the evening hours, possibly
moving into the area after 00z Fri.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL