114
FXUS63 KICT 300551
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1251 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon

- Several showers/storm chances through the weekend and possibly
  into next week

- Best rain chances late Thursday into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

As of 230 PM Wednesday afternoon, a summer-like pattern was present
across the Plains with pulse convection developing amongst a weakly
sheared environment. Satellite reveals an expansive cumulus field
across the forecast area with zones of agitation. Expect isolated
showers/storms through sunset. With shear values near 20 kt, the
strongest updrafts may produce pea size hail and gusty winds up to
40 mph.

More-widespread convection is expected towards dawn Thursday through
the afternoon , especially west of Interstate 135, as a midlevel
shortwave trough advances across the area. Similar to today, weak
shear should limit the overall severe weather potential with the
strongest storms capable of dime size hail and 50 mph winds. Another
midlevel shortwave trough will emerge late Thursday into Friday
yielding additional rain chances. The active pattern will continue
through the weekend and possibly into next week with weak
perturbations translating across the Plains atop a weakly to
moderately unstable environment. A pattern change may ensue towards
the latter half of next week with midlevel ridging sliding in from
the western CONUS. This would shunt precipitation chances east of
the area with increasing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Main forecast concern will be storm chances through the next 24
hours.

Storms developed across eastern CO/far western KS Wed evening
and are continuing to track east. This activity will continue
this trend through the overnight hours but confidence remains
low on what the coverage will look like in several hours. So for
now will just mention VCTS at KRSl-KGBD and continue to monitor
trends. Wouldn`t be shocked if thunder is added to remaining
sites once confidence starts to increase on the track of current
storms. The same setup is expected for this afternoon and
evening with storms once again expected to develop over the High
Plains and track east through the evening hours, possibly
moving into the area after 00z Fri.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...RBL