Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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574 FXUS63 KICT 191726 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for showers and storms this morning and later today mainly along and east of Interstate 35. - Warm today and tomorrow. - Much cooler temperatures coming this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning indicates a 100-kt upper jet over the Four Corners region. One trough sits over the Canadian Plains, while another spins just off the California coast. At the surface, a surface trough continues to extend from South Dakota and into western Kansas. A few showers have tried to develop this morning across central and southeast Kansas out ahead of a strengthening LLJ. PRECIPITATION... Chances for a few isolated showers will hold on through the morning hours today thanks to persistent mid-level WAA. Highest confidence lies in north central Kansas and along/east of Interstate 35. After a brief break, chances will return this afternoon as the aforementioned surface trough encounters a moisture axis oriented along and to the east of Interstate 35 once again by late afternoon. Short-term CAM guidance suggests moderate instability (1500+ J/kg) and shear (30-40 kts), so the primary concerns with the strongest storms will be wind gusts up to 60 mph and half-dollar sized hail. The return of the LLJ Friday evening will provide the next chance for showers across central KS, especially in areas along and north of US-50. Much better chances for rain will come Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front associated with a strong upper trough in the Northern Plains makes its way south across Nebraska and Kansas. Still looks at this time like the best chances lie in northern portions of Kansas. TEMPERATURES... Afternoon high temperatures well above average will prevail across the forecast area today and tomorrow in south central and southeast Kansas, with the warmest temperatures at or above 100 degrees along the Kansas-Oklahoma border. A notable cooldown will come with the arrival of the cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning, with widespread highs in the low to middle 70s to start next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Widely scattered showers/storms expected along a surface trof/dry-line front this afternoon through early this evening across southeast Kansas. Localized IFR/MVFR vsbys can be expected in heavy rain with storms along with strong, possibly severe wind gusts and hail. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with a wind shift associated with the passage of the boundary. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...KED