Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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545 FXUS63 KICT 080601 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 101 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Evening/overnight storm chances, especially across eastern KS. MCS expected to come off the High Plains Sat and affect much of the area Sat night. - Cooler for the Sun-Tue time frame. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Currently have upper ridging from West TX into NM with an upper low over central Saskatchewan with west/northwest flow aloft over the Plains. Water vapor imagery also shows some upper energy moving into the Great Basin. At the surface, lee troughing is continuing to intensify with high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Showers and a few storms tracked out of southwest KS this morning in an area of 700mb warm advection and continue to linger across east-central KS this afternoon. Additional storms are expected late this afternoon from southeast CO into southwest KS in a hot and highly mixed environment. However, the bigger show tonight will for storms to develop over central Nebraska and expand into an MCS as they track off to the southeast early this evening. This activity will be aided by strong 850-700mb moisture transport which will be focused into northeast/eastern KS. Will be plenty of elevated instability and deep layer shear for severe storms. Still thinking that our northeast fringes will have the best chance to be impacted, generally in a line along and northeast of Salina to Chanute. The main limited factor for activity further southwest will be the very warm mid level temps which should also limit eastward progression of activity that develops over southwest KS this afternoon. By 12z Sat, majority of the activity will be affecting MO and northern AR. Cold front, reinforced by outflow, will push south on Sat, and by the late afternoon hours will be situated from southern MO generally across or just south of the KS/OK border. Confidence is increasing that convection will develop over the High Plains of eastern CO/far western KS Sat afternoon in a great upslope setup. This activity will then track southeast through the evening and overnight hours, affecting at least the southern half of our forecast area. Even though complex of storms will be north of the front, still looks to be plenty instability for large hail Sat night and great directional shear between 850-500mb. In addition, PW values are expected to be around 175% of normal Sat night so high rainfall rates and pockets of flooding will also be possible. Some lingering showers and storms will be possible across far southern and southeast KS Sun morning but by the late morning hours the majority of the activity will be moving off into southern MO/eastern OK. Once convection moves off Sunday morning, the rest of the day is expected to be dry with cooler temps as the front pushes back to the south of the forecast area. Confidence in precip chances drops off considerably starting Mon and continuing through at least Tue. The GFS slowly lifts some weak upper energy out of NM and across south central KS Mon morning into the afternoon/evening hours. Meanwhile the ECMWF is slower with this upper feature and tracks it across the OK/KS border on Tue into Tue evening. So for now will not hit the pops too hard for Mon- Tue until models come into better agreement. While precip chances are in question for the start of next week, confidence is high that we will see below normal temps for the Sun-Tue time frame with highs generally in the mid and upper 70s. Cool down will be short lived with a return to above normal temps for Wed and Thu. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A complex of thunderstorms will continue racing southeast across eastern Kansas over the next few hours, likely exiting into Missouri by 08-10z. Thereafter, moist east-northeasterly upslope flow may support SCT-BKN MVFR clouds at RSL-SLN-GBD by 12-15z this morning. Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms is expected to move in from the west this evening, with additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...ADK