Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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920 FXUS63 KICT 282028 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 328 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thursday night/Friday will have the best chance for more numerous showers and storms to affect the region - Periodic storm chances continue for the weekend into next week, severe weather risk will remain low && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Lingering mid-level baroclinic zone with some persistent warm air advection will continue to trigger elevated showers and storms through the afternoon/evening across central/south central Kansas. Severe weather is not expected. Meanwhile current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level short wave over New Mexico moving eastward. As this wave approaches western Texas/southwest Kansas scattered to numerous storms should re-develop in those areas later this afternoon/tonight, and most of this activity will remain west of central/south central Kansas tonight. The mid-level baroclinic zone looks to linger across the region through Wednesday and with some weak warm moist advection this could spark off additional elevated showers/storms during the day. Storms should redevelop over the high plains area eastern Colorado/western Kansas Wednesday afternoon/evening, as a low level moist upslope regime gets underway. This activity will then spread eastward and increase in coverage as moisture transport/low level jet increases for Wednesday night. Again severe weather risk looks low with weaker winds aloft expected. Thursday - Monday The upper-level trough currently churning off the coast of Washington state is expected to produce the first of a series of shortwaves that will roll off the High Plains and across Kansas on Thursday. Coupled with moderate instability and shear, multicell showers and storms are expected to arise as a result of this synoptic forcing. There are limiting factors that will inhibit the severe potential during this time, but a handful of storms producing small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. The wet pattern is anticipated to continue as the aforementioned shortwaves continue to bring chances of rain through Monday. Warmer temperatures are expected in the wake of this active period as we progress further into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions are expected for all terminals throughout the period. Elevated showers and storms will remain to be the primary aviation concerns through the afternoon as a baroclinic zone sits over central KS. Confidence in the timing and location of these storms is low considering the stationary nature of this zone, so AMDs will be issued as needed. Chances for showers and storms will decrease through the evening. Light winds are anticipated overnight. The early morning could see the return of a few elevated showers and storms similar to today, but neglected to mention these since confidence in the timing and location remains low at this time. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ/JK AVIATION...JK