703
FXUS63 KICT 271736
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1236 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures expected to remain seasonably mild to warm for much
of the week.

- Periodic rain chances forecast through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Analyzing water vapor satellite this morning, a number of shortwave
troughs are progressing eastward across the northern plains,
Midwest, and New England regions. Meanwhile, weak upper ridging
exists over the Great Basin. As a result, general northwesterly
upper flow is present over the central plains. At the surface, a
frontal boundary has pushed moisture out of the forecast area, and
warm but dry conditions are expected for today as a result. Later
tonight into early Tuesday morning a subtle mid-level baroclinic
zone will be draped over Kansas. With apparent mid-level moisture
transport as well as meager instability (less than 500 J/kg) above
700 mb, a few isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two are
progged to develop across portions of central and south-central
Kansas. Rain chances should come to an end later Tuesday morning as
the LLJ weakens.

For the remainder of the week, ripples in weak upper level zonal
flow across the central plains are expected to skate over the
region. This along with rich gulf moisture streaming northward and
setting up shop across the region. As a result, periodic storm
chances are anticipated throughout much of the week. Analyzing
the upcoming pattern is fairly difficult as global models tend
to have a tough time resolving subtle features; therefore, the
forecast for the next week is fairly uncertain. While multiple
opportunities for showers and storms exist this week, we will
definitely emphasize not to expect widespread, meaningful
rainfall this wee. However, with flow aloft so weak, we are NOT
expecting widespread severe weather; just a token strong to
marginally severe storm may be possible should sufficient
instability be in place.

So let`s break this down... Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, it
appears as though low to medium (20-40%) isolated storm chances
exist mainly west of I-135. This looks to be supported by the
combination of a weak upper wave passing over western Kansas as well
as possibly modest moisture transport nosing into a subtle mid-level
boundary created as a result of afternoon convection coming off of
the High Plains. Chances generally wane during the day on Wednesday,
but will gradually increase again late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as another shortwave trough skates across the region.
Storm chances during this time frame may be further supported by
sufficient elevated instability as well as some broad mid-
level WAA. Global models attempt to repeat this exact scenario
Thursday evening into Friday morning which will bring more rain
chances to the area. Just to reiterate, this is still fairly
uncertain taking into account global models have a difficult
time resolving subtle features like this. Rain chances look to
dwindle going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Fairly quiet VFR conditions are expected through late tonight.
By later tonight and persisting through at least Tuesday
morning, increasing deep warm advection should support
increasing scattered showers/thunderstorms. Unsure on exactly
where this activity will focus, so included PROB30 -TSRA at all
sites. Limited instability in concert with adequate deep layer
shear could support pea-dime size hail with the strongest
activity.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ADK