Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250754
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
254 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Early morning activity will continue to slide southeast aided by
moisture transport from low level jet associated with upper level
wave moving across Nebraska. Storms will linger this morning over
southeast Kansas and should dissipate before the afternoon, as
subsidence spreads across central and southern Kansas in the wake of
the upper level short wave. A possible outflow boundary from the
overnight activity could become a focus for re-newed thunderstorm
development in Oklahoma and portions of southern Kansas today,
mainly for late this afternoon and evening. Wind shear will be
marginal but instability will be plenty high enough for a few multi-
cell strong/severe storms.

Confidence is high that hot above normal temperatures will prevail
this holiday weekend across the region, as upper level ridge
amplifies over central US. The weather pattern looks to remain dry
as well for most of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Models show upper level trough axis gradually shifting eastward and
transitioning to semi-zonal flow with a few short waves moving
across the region this period. This pattern favors a couple possible
nocturnal MCS thunderstorm events for Kansas with models showing
short waves moving through the region. Confidence is high that
daytime highs will remain above normal for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Main concern will be convective trends overnight.

Cluster of storms that developed over northwest KS has tracked
into central KS and is continuing to track east and shows no signs
of stopping. KSLN looks to be the next site impacted with 40-50mb
winds and heavy rain. Confidence in storms affecting other sites
are much lower, so will run with a VCTS for now. If this area
holds together it would make it into southeast KS by around
10-11z, and KICT after 08z. After this activity pushes east, not
very confident we`ll see much in the way of storms as we get into
some subsidence. The exception maybe any outflow boundaries that
are floating around.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    93  68  94  69 /  20  10   0   0
Hutchinson      94  66  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          92  67  94  68 /  20  10   0   0
ElDorado        90  67  92  69 /  30  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   91  67  92  69 /  30  20   0   0
Russell         96  64  96  67 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      96  64  95  67 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          94  67  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
McPherson       94  66  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
Coffeyville     87  68  92  68 /  30  30  10   0
Chanute         87  67  91  68 /  30  20  10   0
Iola            87  67  91  68 /  30  20  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    87  68  91  68 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL


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