395
FXUS63 KICT 161121
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
621 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- AM shower/storm chances in central KS to start off the week.

- Better chances for showers and storms late Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

- Warm this week, then a cooldown in sight?

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning indicates a strong mid/upper trough
situated over the Great Basin as a ridge sits over the Great Lakes.
A decaying MCS continues to make its way through portions of
northwest Kansas, thereby reducing confidence in potential for
additional elevated convection later this morning. Still maintained
low PoPs in central KS given short-term model support for continued
700 mb WAA later this morning. Any activity that manages to develop
is not expected to be severe.

PRECIPITATION...

The active morning pattern will look to continue through the
beginning of the week as modest low/mid-level WAA provides chances
for elevated showers and storms similar to what we saw this weekend.
Current short-term guidance suggests better chances west of the
forecast area, though it will be hard to rule out isolated showers
making it to central KS considering recent trends. Better support
for convection arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as
an upper wave rolls through the Northern Plains. This should allow
for a more organized complex of showers and storms to move from west
to east across Kansas, making it possibly as far east as the Flint
Hills on Wednesday. Additional chances for showers and storms arrive
later on through the weekend as a cold front makes its way through
the state.

TEMPERATURES...

Seasonably warm high temperatures (middle to upper 80s) are expected
to dominate the scene through the middle of the work week before
above-average highs (low to middle 90s) arrive on Thursday and
Friday. We`ll look to cool down as we head into next weekend with
the arrival of the aforementioned cold front, which at this point is
progged to bring highs in the upper 70s and low 80s to the Sunflower
State.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Widely scattered morning storms will impact parts of central
Kansas, especially north of I-70. Some transient MVFR or IFR cigs
may be possible at times under a shower or storm but the
activity is expected to diminish by mid-morning. VFR is expected
to prevail today with breezy southeast winds impacting central
KS, some gusts up to 26 knots will be possible during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM