441
FXUS63 KICT 151703
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1203 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated (mainly morning) showers possible over parts of central
  KS through early next week.

- Unseasonably warm conditions will linger through much of the
  upcoming week.

- Increasing precipitation chances late in the week with a
  cooldown anticipated next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The large-scale pattern features a large trough beginning to impact
much of the western CONUS while an upper level ridge was situated
across parts of the Great Lakes/Northeast and a weak trough
continued to be situated over the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A
more subtle mid/upper ridge was impacting the Southern and parts of
the Central Plains.

This pattern will remain very similar until the middle/latter
portion of the upcoming week as the western CONUS trough is progged
to translate slowly eastward while the upper level ridge over the
Northeast is slowly displaced and the trough over the Lower
Mississippi Valley area deepens and lifts into the Mid-Atlantic area
later in the week. Meanwhile, mid/upper level ridging will be slow
to erode over the Southern and Central Plains and will amplify on
Thu-Fri keeping unseasonably warm conditions in place through the
upcoming work-week.

A lead wave lifting over the Central Rockies late Tue into early Wed
will bring the first round of more robust showers and storms to the
Central Plains but confidence in how far east it rolls off the High
Plains remains rather low.

We will continue to carry low pops for mainly morning showers
impacting parts of central KS early in the week. The better chances
for more widespread shower and storms may remain further west across
the High Plains as mid/upper level ridge axis remains firmly planted
across eastern Kansas. Better chances for more widespread meaningful
precipitation should arrive late Friday into the weekend as a cold
front moves over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the afternoon and much of
tonight across the region. Meanwhile, there could be another
round of scattered thunderstorms that develops Monday morning
across portions of central/south central Kansas. Not enough
confidence to introduce for any TAF site at this early juncture.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ