Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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506 FXUS63 KICT 311125 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 625 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active weather pattern continues for Today-Tuesday across the region with periods of heavy rainfall possibly materializing and giving way to some flooding problems(Sunday night- Tuesday night) - Strong to severe storm chances could increase during the Sunday-Tuesday period && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Remnant MCV over eastern Kansas early this morning was producing slow moving nearly stationary showers/storms. Another area of convection over western Kansas was drifting eastward towards central Kansas. Expecting the convection from western Kansas to slowly decrease in coverage due to weak low level jet. This decaying overnight convection from western Kansas could spawn a east drifting MCV due to weaker flow aloft. If this occurs the MCV would become a focus for possible re-newed convection during the day today over central/eastern Kansas. Storms will re-develop further west again over the high plains of eastern Colorado this afternoon, and will migrate slowly eastward into western Kansas tonight. Low level jet looks to be fairly weak across the region tonight which will hinder the eastward progression of this convection, and could cause showers/storms to diminish overnight as they approach central Kansas. We should see a replay for Saturday afternoon with convection developing over the high plains region, and then migrating eastward overnight. Models do show a better low level jet/increasing moisture transport which should aid in convection maintenance. This activity would have a better chance reaching central/south central Kansas Saturday night. Severe weather chances will be low, however there could be some gusty winds and heavy rainfall concerns with this type of weather pattern for Saturday night. Models show a upper level zonal flow regime maintaining across the region with two pronounced upper troughs moving eastward across the northern plains on Sunday and Tuesday. A frontal boundary will push southward from Nebraska into Kansas Sunday night from the first upper wave, and we should see more numerous storms develop along the front as low level jet will be noticeably stronger Sunday night. We could see additional thunderstorms develop again on Monday afternoon/night as airmass becomes more unstable with richer Gulf of Mexico moisture streaming into Kansas during the day. Meanwhile the second upper level wave advertised by the models will push an even stronger cold front southward into Kansas Tuesday night, and with very rich moisture/high instability in place numerous storms look to develop along the front. Severe weather chances could become more favorable Tuesday night due to increasing winds aloft. This could generate a possible forward propagating MCS, however these active patterns are difficult for models to predict from day to day. There are some flooding concerns with this pattern especially if we see several rounds of storms affect the same locations repeatedly. The longer range models show a pattern change beginning mid week with a transition to a northwest flow regime aloft and building upper level ridge across the Rockies for Wednesday and Thursday. This pattern shift favors dry weather for Kansas. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Some MVFR/IFR cigs were impacting the area this morning with scattered showers and isolated storms. Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will fester across the area this morning bringing the potential for some pockets of heavy rain and reduced flight categories. Showers and storms are expected to diminish as we move through the day but low cigs and MVFR/IFR may linger through at least early afternoon before mixing out from west to east. Light southeast winds will prevail through the period. Storms drifting eastward off the high plains late tonight may remain west of the area. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...MWM