Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
507 FXUS63 KICT 241748 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1248 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather episode possible Saturday evening into early Sun morning with all hazards possible. - Mild and mostly dry conditions to start next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave lifting across Western SD with some additional shortwave energy about to come onshore over Northern/Central CA. At the surface, a cold front extends from NW IA into Central KS and down into the TX Panhandle, with storms along this feature over eastern Nebraska/northeast KS. Line of storms will continue tracking east this morning affecting northeast KS into MO, with a few storms also possible across southeast KS in an area of decent 850-700mb moisture transport. It`s possible that at least some strong storms could be possible with this activity. Cold front will continue pushing through the forecast area during the afternoon hours and will be east of the area before storms develop again along in. By 12z Sat surface high will be centered over northeast MO/eastern IA with two western CONUS impulses; one over the Desert Southwest and the other approaching the Great Basin. Dewpoints across the forecast area on Sat morning are expected to be in the 40s to around 50 degrees. As the upper level energy approaches the Plains, low level moisture will rapidly lift north with dewpoints around 70 possible over southern and southeast KS by 00z Sun. The NAM has the dryline further west compared to the GFS and to a lesser degree the ECMWF. The big question for Sat will be if and how many storms are able to develop along the dryline. The negatives will be the "all of a sudden" arrival of the low level moisture along with warming mid level temps. However, there is no doubt there will be a fairly pronounced shortwave moving out across the area with plenty of large scale lift. At this time feel that if a storm develops along the dryline, it would likely not be more than a few storms and with extreme instability and great effective deep layer shear, supercells will be likely with all hazards likely. Timing is one aspect of this system where confidence is increasing with the thinking that storms will likely hold off until after 5 pm and possibly after 7 pm. The highest confidence in widespread storm development with this system will be over southeast Nebraska/northeast KS where a classic elevated convective regime will setup in an area of impressive 850-700mb theta-e advection. Any storms that develop on the dryline would continue and possibly become more widespread overnight as they track east due to cold pool interactions. At this point, damaging winds would become the bigger threat. Cold front will push through the forecast area on Sun as shortwave energy slides across the Central Plains. Cold front is expected to be east of the forecast area before storms form along it. There is decent agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in an upper low tracking out of Western Ontario and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Mon evening. This impulse will then rotate into the Ohio Valley by Tue evening. This will allow for fairly mild temps to overspread the area for the start of the work week with dry conditions also expected through at least Tue. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminal sites for the period. Northwesterly winds will weaken through the daytime hours before veering around to the southeast and strengthening once more early Saturday morning. These are anticipated to gust to 20-25 kts through the end of the period for all sites except KCNU. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...JK/ELM