754
FXUS63 KICT 251127
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions expected today with heat indices between 105
  and 110 expected during the afternoon hours.

- Isolated strong to marginally severe storms possible this afternoon
  through early Wednesday morning.

- Not as hot Wednesday & Thursday with low rain chances along
  I-70 each night.

- Hot conditions return on Friday, with more widespread rain
  chances possible Friday evening through Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Water vapor satellite and upper air analysis this morning shows a
stout mid to upper ridge across southern plains and Desert
Southwest. Meanwhile, despite an extreme amount of inhibition, a
cluster of showers and storms across portions of western and central
Kansas continues ahead of a subtle vort-max embedded in within
modest upper flow. There`s low confidence about how long this
activity will continues slowly southward considering this activity
has already overperformed expectations. The progression of this
activity will likely be a key factor in storm chances this afternoon
and evening, and perhaps the temperature forecast for this afternoon
as well.

That being said, expect much of the area to be hot and humid today.
Afternoon temperatures are most likely going to rise into the upper
90s to lower 100s with dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to the low
70s. As a result, heat indices between 105 and 110 are expected this
afternoon and early evening provided no precipitation occurs.
Meanwhile, a frontal boundary and the associated subtle upper trough
embedded in northwest flow should be enough to trigger at least
isolated storms late this afternoon/early this evening across
northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. Some of 00Z CAMs suggest
the ongoing activity this morning will lead behind a remnant
boundary or MCV near the Oklahoma/Kansas border, but this aspect
of the forecast has low confidence so lower PoPs (20-30%) were
kept across southern Kansas. Similarly, other short term models
are suggesting a thermal surface trough across central and
western Kansas will be enough to trigger some isolated
convection. Again, it`s hard to justify any PoPs above 30% given
the uncertainty across central Kansas. Forecast soundings
indicate copious amounts of DCAPE, and as a result, strong to
marginally severe wind gusts are going to be possible with any
storms that manage to develop across the area during the
afternoon and evening hours. Meanwhile, an organized MCS is
expected to develop across northeast Nebraska and progress
south-southeastward. As this complex of storms pushes into far
eastern Kansas/Missouri overnight tonight, there is some
uncertainty about the westward extent. Therefore, it`s difficult
to keep higher than 40% PoPs east of the Flint Hills. By
Wednesday morning, this complex of storms is expected to exit
the region.

Temperatures are expected to be closer to average for this time of
year behind this frontal passage as weak to modest zonal flow
returns to the region. Subtle perturbations should allow for storm
development across the High Plains Wednesday and Thursday; however,
confidence is low if this activity can make it east enough to impact
portions of central and south-central Kansas. Higher chances will
generally remain along and north of the I-70 corridor. A stronger
frontal boundary will approach the region on Friday, and another day
of hot and humid conditions is expected south of the front. This
frontal boundary will also increase storm chances from Friday
evening through Saturday night. However, there are lots of details
to work out between now and then, and the forecast for the beginning
of the weekend is subject to change.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Convection continued to linger early this morning as it drifts
southward into western portions of south central Kansas. Some of
this could make it into the KICT area, though confidence is not
very high. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the forecast valid period. Diurnally gusty south to
southwest winds will reside ahead of a weak front today with
the front moving into parts of central Kansas by late evening
and into southern Kansas tonight. Widely scattered convection
is possible along the front, though have just included VCSH for
now due to lower confidence on thunder chances and coverage.

KED

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Record highs for Monday and Tuesday:

          Today (Record) | Today`s Highs

Wichita     107 (1911)         101
Salina      114 (1911)         102
Chanute     104 (1933)          98
Russell     108 (2012)         102

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...KED
CLIMATE...ELM