Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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924 FXUS63 KICT 230537 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms in Eastern Kansas this afternoon and evening - Hot and humid conditions across the region into next week - Next chance for rain looks to be Tuesday afternoon/evening && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Current satellite shows a weak frontal system slowly moving across the region this afternoon and is accompanied by a monsoonal plume of moisture from the Desert Southwest. This stream of moisture has served to bring PW values into 1.5 to 2.1 inch range this afternoon which is well above normal for this time of year. Combine this moisture with approaching front and the risk of showers and thunderstorms increase for this afternoon and into the evening. Most of the short term ensembles and the CAMS are having difficultly resolving this frontal system as the mid and upper level support is rather weak. Additionally, deep layer shear is not that great over the CWA at this time. The better shear values are further to the north and east of the CWA. As such, there does not seem to be enough forcing available or instability to really get a bunch of showers and thunderstorms to start. That said, do expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to be present this evening. This will mainly be along and east of the Turnpike (I-35). Given the high PW values, any storm that does develop will be capable of heavy downpours which could cause ponding on roadways or brief localized flooding. Another concern is the DCAPE values in Eastern Kansas this afternoon which is in the 400-800 J/KG range. This indicates a strong potential, if storms develop, for storms to produce some strong gusty winds into the 60 mph range. Wind appears to be the main threat but some small hail is also possible with any storm that develops. Any activity that does occur is expected to abate by early morning Sunday. Sunday through Tuesday will have some ridging building into the region. This will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms to a minimum if at all but it will have the consequence of hot conditions. Temperatures are likely to breech the century mark for most areas of the CWA for the first time this year. This will also create heat indices of 105-110 across the CWA. Monday and Tuesday will have the best chance for these higher temperatures. Tuesday afternoon, many of the ensembles are indicating an increased potential for showers and thunderstorms which is likely to provide some relief to the region. This will likely bring temperatures down below the century mark for the remainder of the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. A very low (less than 10%) chance of an isolated shower exists across southeast Kansas for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will generally remain at or below 10 knots and the wind direction gradually shifts from northeasterly to southerly as a frontal boundary draped across the area becomes more diffuse throughout the day. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Record highs for Monday and Tuesday: Monday Tuesday Wichita 103 (1980) 107 (1911) Salina 107 (1937) 114 (1911) Chanute 105 (1918) 104 (1933) Russell 112 (2012) 108 (2012) && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...JC CLIMATE...ELM