Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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780 FXUS63 KICT 220606 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 106 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance (20%) for showers through this evening. - Increasing confidence for isolated showers and storms on Saturday, especially east of I-135. - Hot on Monday and Tuesday, but chances for showers through the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Water vapor imagery currently depicts an upper-level trough gradually making its way eastward over the Great Basin as the synoptic ridge continues to sit over the Ohio River Valley. Surface analysis reveals a warm front extending from the High Plains to Lake Michigan, which is providing lift for additional showers and storms across the Northern Central Plains. SPC mesoanalysis once again highlights anomalous PW values approaching 2" across south central and eastern Kansas, which have led to a handful of showers developing over the region this afternoon that are making their way northward. These are expected to be short-lived and diurnal in nature. The upper-level disturbance making its way across the Northern Central Plains will bring a cold front that will make its way across central and eastern Kansas Saturday afternoon. This boundary will provide sufficient lift for isolated showers and storms to develop given rich moisture profiles and ~1500 J/kg of CAPE, but marginal deep-layer shear around 20 kts should prevent widespread severe storms from developing. Even so, the primary threats with any storms tomorrow afternoon/evening will be 60 mph wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. Currently thinking development could extend as far west as I-135 per the mid-range deterministic models and CAMs, but coverage should remain primarily in east and northeast Kansas. Heat will continue to be the primary focus heading into next week. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast at or above 100 degrees for much of central and southeast Kansas, with heat indices approaching 105-110 degrees. Long-range models are in general agreement of shortwave energy providing chances for showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then later on in the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions expected through this afternoon, then a chance of showers and storms possible late this afternoon through late tonight. Breezy southerly winds will continue early this morning and last for much of the day today. Wind gusts around 20 to 30 knots at times from now through the afternoon, especially along and west of the Flint Hills. Around 22Z, a slow moving frontal boundary will sag into central and eastern Kansas, and widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected to commence. Thunderstorms should stay east of a KSLN-to-KICT line through the end of the TAF period. The area with the best chance for thunderstorms tonight will be KCNU and surrounding areas. Main concerns are gusty winds and heavy rainfall that will reduce visibility. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...JC